{ "title": "Pay rose. Why is getting ahead still so hard?", "publication": "2026-11-01", "version": 2, "charts": [ { "kind": "line", "title": "START WITH\nTHE LONG VIEW", "series": [ { "label": "Typical full-time pay", "points": [ { "x": 1995, "y": 0.0, "label": "1995" }, { "x": 1996, "y": 3.7202893558387906, "label": "1996" }, { "x": 1997, "y": 10.747502583534274, "label": "1997" }, { "x": 1998, "y": 15.673441267654153, "label": "1998" }, { "x": 1999, "y": 19.29038925249742, "label": "1999" }, { "x": 2000, "y": 24.009645194626252, "label": "2000" }, { "x": 2001, "y": 30.003444712366512, "label": "2001" }, { "x": 2002, "y": 35.10161901481226, "label": "2002" }, { "x": 2003, "y": 39.57974509128488, "label": "2003" }, { "x": 2004, "y": 44.78126076472615, "label": "2004" }, { "x": 2005, "y": 48.70823286255597, "label": "2005" }, { "x": 2006, "y": 53.22080606269377, "label": "2006" }, { "x": 2007, "y": 58.215638994143994, "label": "2007" }, { "x": 2008, "y": 65.03616947984843, "label": "2008" }, { "x": 2009, "y": 68.7564588356872, "label": "2009" }, { "x": 2010, "y": 72.3389596968653, "label": "2010" }, { "x": 2011, "y": 72.23561832586978, "label": "2011" }, { "x": 2012, "y": 74.95694109541853, "label": "2012" }, { "x": 2013, "y": 78.2983120909404, "label": "2013" }, { "x": 2014, "y": 79.26283155356526, "label": "2014" }, { "x": 2015, "y": 82.05304857044436, "label": "2015" }, { "x": 2016, "y": 86.04891491560456, "label": "2016" }, { "x": 2017, "y": 90.14812263176024, "label": "2017" }, { "x": 2018, "y": 96.41749913882191, "label": "2018" }, { "x": 2019, "y": 102.20461591457112, "label": "2019" }, { "x": 2020, "y": 102.13572166724076, "label": "2020" }, { "x": 2021, "y": 110.78194970719943, "label": "2021" }, { "x": 2022, "y": 121.90837065105065, "label": "2022" }, { "x": 2023, "y": 137.54736479503958, "label": "2023" }, { "x": 2024, "y": 151.60179125043055, "label": "2024" }, { "x": 2025, "y": 164.65725111953148, "label": "2025" } ] }, { "label": "Food prices", "points": [ { "x": 1995, "y": 0.0, "label": "1995" }, { "x": 1996, "y": 3.1397174254317095, "label": "1996" }, { "x": 1997, "y": 2.982731554160112, "label": "1997" }, { "x": 1998, "y": 4.081632653061207, "label": "1998" }, { "x": 1999, "y": 4.2386185243328045, "label": "1999" }, { "x": 2000, "y": 3.7676609105180336, "label": "2000" }, { "x": 2001, "y": 7.692307692307687, "label": "2001" }, { "x": 2002, "y": 8.634222919937207, "label": "2002" }, { "x": 2003, "y": 9.890109890109876, "label": "2003" }, { "x": 2004, "y": 10.518053375196246, "label": "2004" }, { "x": 2005, "y": 12.244897959183664, "label": "2005" }, { "x": 2006, "y": 15.070643642072202, "label": "2006" }, { "x": 2007, "y": 20.251177394034524, "label": "2007" }, { "x": 2008, "y": 31.083202511773944, "label": "2008" }, { "x": 2009, "y": 38.30455259026686, "label": "2009" }, { "x": 2010, "y": 43.014128728414434, "label": "2010" }, { "x": 2011, "y": 50.70643642072212, "label": "2011" }, { "x": 2012, "y": 55.572998430141276, "label": "2012" }, { "x": 2013, "y": 61.53846153846154, "label": "2013" }, { "x": 2014, "y": 61.224489795918366, "label": "2014" }, { "x": 2015, "y": 56.985871271585545, "label": "2015" }, { "x": 2016, "y": 53.218210361067484, "label": "2016" }, { "x": 2017, "y": 56.67189952904237, "label": "2017" }, { "x": 2018, "y": 59.811616954474076, "label": "2018" }, { "x": 2019, "y": 62.009419152276294, "label": "2019" }, { "x": 2020, "y": 63.10832025117739, "label": "2020" }, { "x": 2021, "y": 63.57927786499216, "label": "2021" }, { "x": 2022, "y": 81.31868131868131, "label": "2022" }, { "x": 2023, "y": 107.69230769230771, "label": "2023" }, { "x": 2024, "y": 113.18681318681318, "label": "2024" }, { "x": 2025, "y": 122.13500784929354, "label": "2025" } ], "color": "#C96A50" }, { "label": "All prices", "points": [ { "x": 1995, "y": 0.0, "label": "1995" }, { "x": 1996, "y": 2.3809523809523725, "label": "1996" }, { "x": 1997, "y": 4.315476190476186, "label": "1997" }, { "x": 1998, "y": 5.952380952380953, "label": "1998" }, { "x": 1999, "y": 7.291666666666652, "label": "1999" }, { "x": 2000, "y": 8.184523809523814, "label": "2000" }, { "x": 2001, "y": 9.523809523809511, "label": "2001" }, { "x": 2002, "y": 10.863095238095234, "label": "2002" }, { "x": 2003, "y": 12.351190476190466, "label": "2003" }, { "x": 2004, "y": 13.839285714285698, "label": "2004" }, { "x": 2005, "y": 16.22023809523807, "label": "2005" }, { "x": 2006, "y": 18.898809523809533, "label": "2006" }, { "x": 2007, "y": 21.726190476190467, "label": "2007" }, { "x": 2008, "y": 26.041666666666675, "label": "2008" }, { "x": 2009, "y": 28.869047619047606, "label": "2009" }, { "x": 2010, "y": 33.03571428571428, "label": "2010" }, { "x": 2011, "y": 38.988095238095234, "label": "2011" }, { "x": 2012, "y": 43.00595238095237, "label": "2012" }, { "x": 2013, "y": 46.577380952380956, "label": "2013" }, { "x": 2014, "y": 48.80952380952381, "label": "2014" }, { "x": 2015, "y": 48.80952380952381, "label": "2015" }, { "x": 2016, "y": 49.85119047619047, "label": "2016" }, { "x": 2017, "y": 53.86904761904763, "label": "2017" }, { "x": 2018, "y": 57.58928571428572, "label": "2018" }, { "x": 2019, "y": 60.41666666666665, "label": "2019" }, { "x": 2020, "y": 61.75595238095237, "label": "2020" }, { "x": 2021, "y": 66.07142857142856, "label": "2021" }, { "x": 2022, "y": 81.10119047619047, "label": "2022" }, { "x": 2023, "y": 94.19642857142856, "label": "2023" }, { "x": 2024, "y": 99.25595238095238, "label": "2024" }, { "x": 2025, "y": 105.95238095238093, "label": "2025" } ], "color": "#9B80AD" } ], "unit": "%", "footer": "Change since 1995 • GB median gross weekly full-time pay; UK annual prices. Pay-method breaks marked.", "breaks": [ 1997, 2004, 2006, 2011, 2021, 2023 ], "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/earningstimeseriesofmediangrossweeklyearningsfrom1968to2022", "note": "NES / ASHE as published in one official historical workbook. Later-basis observation selected where source publishes overlap. No adjustments to remove breaks. Gaps in the drawn pay line at method changes. Long-run comparisons are approximate, not a single consistently sampled panel." }, { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bu/mm23", "note": "" }, { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23", "note": "" } ] }, { "kind": "bars", "title": "SAME THIRTY YEARS.\nVERY DIFFERENT CHANGES", "rows": [ { "label": "Typical full-time pay", "value": 164.65725111953148 }, { "label": "Average home price", "value": 418.4804423377661 }, { "label": "Gas price index", "value": 360.2446483180428 } ], "unit": "%", "footer": "1995–2025 • percentage increase in levels; pay GB, prices UK. Not one household’s budget.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/earningstimeseriesofmediangrossweeklyearningsfrom1968to2022", "note": "NES / ASHE as published in one official historical workbook. Later-basis observation selected where source publishes overlap. No adjustments to remove breaks. Gaps in the drawn pay line at method changes. Long-run comparisons are approximate, not a single consistently sampled panel." }, { "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-house-price-index-reports", "note": "" }, { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7du/mm23", "note": "" } ] }, { "kind": "line", "title": "ZOOM IN.\nTHE RECENT SHOCK.", "series": [ { "label": "Typical full-time pay", "points": [ { "x": 2021, "y": 0.0, "label": "2021" }, { "x": 2022, "y": 5.2786403007027305, "label": "2022" }, { "x": 2023, "y": 12.698153293021752, "label": "2023" }, { "x": 2024, "y": 19.365909462330457, "label": "2024" }, { "x": 2025, "y": 25.559731982350065, "label": "2025" } ] }, { "label": "Food prices", "points": [ { "x": 2021, "y": 0.0, "label": "2021" }, { "x": 2022, "y": 10.844529750479847, "label": "2022" }, { "x": 2023, "y": 26.967370441458737, "label": "2023" }, { "x": 2024, "y": 30.326295585412666, "label": "2024" }, { "x": 2025, "y": 35.796545105566224, "label": "2025" } ], "color": "#C96A50" }, { "label": "Gas prices", "points": [ { "x": 2021, "y": 0.0, "label": "2021" }, { "x": 2022, "y": 89.96539792387541, "label": "2022" }, { "x": 2023, "y": 124.91349480968856, "label": "2023" }, { "x": 2024, "y": 68.62745098039214, "label": "2024" }, { "x": 2025, "y": 73.58708189158017, "label": "2025" } ], "color": "#9B80AD" } ], "unit": "%", "footer": "Change since 2021 • to 2025 • pay-method/revision changes marked; annual price indices.", "breaks": [ 2023 ], "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/earningstimeseriesofmediangrossweeklyearningsfrom1968to2022", "note": "NES / ASHE as published in one official historical workbook. Later-basis observation selected where source publishes overlap. No adjustments to remove breaks. Gaps in the drawn pay line at method changes. Long-run comparisons are approximate, not a single consistently sampled panel." }, { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bu/mm23", "note": "" }, { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7du/mm23", "note": "" } ] }, { "kind": "bars", "title": "THE BASICS TAKE\nA BIGGER SHARE", "rows": [ { "label": "Lowest-income fifth", "value": 40.87895899828136 }, { "label": "Highest-income fifth", "value": 20.22886674049465 } ], "unit": "%", "footer": "UK • 2024/25 Family Spending • share of expenditure, not income; housing includes specified costs.", "survey": true, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/expenditure/datasets/familyspendingworkbook3expenditurebyincome", "note": "2024/25 table 3.1E5; food + specified housing/energy rows divided by total spending. Checked original cells retained in earlier production source." } ] }, { "kind": "bars", "title": "G7: GROWTH\nPER WORKER", "rows": [ { "label": "Canada", "value": 26.59686798055343, "highlight": false }, { "label": "France", "value": 23.806814602874617, "highlight": false }, { "label": "Germany", "value": 23.04922211618896, "highlight": false }, { "label": "Italy", "value": 2.385486880058596, "highlight": false }, { "label": "Japan", "value": 19.410132811672987, "highlight": false }, { "label": "UK", "value": 33.260258063430825, "highlight": true }, { "label": "US", "value": 60.91062477631481, "highlight": false } ], "unit": "%", "footer": "1995–2025 • World Bank/ILO modelled, price-adjusted growth; not wages or output per hour.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/GBR;USA;DEU;FRA;ITA;JPN;CAN/indicator/SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD?format=json&date=1991:2025&per_page=1000", "note": "World Bank/ILO modelled output per person employed; constant 2021 PPP dollars. Growth is not wages or output per hour. API updated 2026-10-08", "sha256": "6fe1215a168a108f148fb8273f09b2a266a1ee0435c90c6849afe572c193d15c" } ] }, { "kind": "bars", "title": "WORK WORRIES\nHAVE GROWN", "rows": [ { "label": "Aug 2024", "value": 31 }, { "label": "Aug 2025", "value": 42 }, { "label": "Aug 2026", "value": 54 } ], "unit": "%", "footer": "ONS • GB adults • dated August survey periods; multiple responses. Not the unemployment rate.", "survey": true, "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/august2026", "retrieved": "2026-11-01", "sha256": "5f1f819636906f090c6e0dfc27f89a4f54de98ccbc9f94d3df9c5246a68b8079", "method": "ONS Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, Great Britain adults, 5–30 August 2026. 3,560 responses from 8,730 sampled adults (41% response). Multiple answers permitted. Employment selected as important: 31% August 2024, 42% August 2025, 54% August 2026. Not unemployment rates." } ] } ], "publishedCases": [ { "label": "Lowri’s experience after her business closed — Trussell", "url": "https://www.trussell.org.uk/our-work/what-we-do/who-needs-food-banks" } ], "interpretation": "Survey feelings, measured outcomes and individual published cases are distinct evidence. Connections are not quantified causal effects. Historical dates and methodological breaks are retained. Builder checks are not independent analytical assurance." }