Reference · Trends & signals

A single number can't tell you the direction — these eight can

Eight UK indicators tracked over 10–15 years, each showing its full published series so you can see whether something is historically high, improving or getting worse — not just its latest value.

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Each indicator is compared with its own value 5 years earlier (or the earliest year available). For numbers that are themselves percentages — inflation, unemployment, debt as a share of GDP, child poverty — the change is given in percentage points: unemployment going from 4.0% to 4.5% is “up 0.5 percentage points”, not “up 13%”. Those are called broadly stable if they moved less than 0.5 of a percentage point. For everything else — counts such as the waiting list or migration, and the house price to earnings ratio — the change is given as a percentage of the earlier value, and a move of less than 5% either way is called broadly stable rather than a trend. These cut-offs are this site’s own rule of thumb for “big enough to mention”, not an official test. Where whether a rise is good or bad is a political judgement — migration is the clearest case — the figure is shown in neutral grey.

Are prices still rising quickly?

3.4%

Up 2.5 percentage points since 2020

But 5.7 percentage points below the 9.1% peak in 2022 — 2020 was an unusually low base.

Inflation · United Kingdom · 2025 (annual average; series last released 15 September 2026)

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CPI Inflation (annual average %) — Units: % · 2025 (annual average; series last released 15 September 2026) · United Kingdom · Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (series D7G7)
Year	CPI inflation %
2010	3.3
2011	4.5
2012	2.8
2013	2.6
2014	1.5
2015	0
2016	0.7
2017	2.7
2018	2.5
2019	1.8
2020	0.9
2021	2.6
2022	9.1
2023	7.3
2024	2.5
2025	3.4

A lower inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly — not that prices have fallen. The price level itself has not gone back down.

Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (series D7G7)

Read the full inflation analysis →

Is net migration rising or falling?

171k

Up 84% since 2020

But 81% below the 891k peak in 2022 — 2020 was an unusually low base.

Net migration · United Kingdom · YE Dec 2025 (provisional)

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UK Net Migration ('000s per year) — Units: '000s · YE Dec 2025 (provisional) · United Kingdom · Source: ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional (YE Dec 2025 edition, Table 1)
Year	Net migration ('000s)
2012	195
2013	244
2014	284
2015	303
2016	249
2017	208
2018	276
2019	184
2020	93
2021	467
2022	891
2023	848
2024	331
2025	171

Arrivals minus departures. Whether a fall is welcome is a political judgement this site does not make; the number itself has fallen by more than three-quarters from its peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023, and nearly halved in the latest year (331,000 in 2024 to 171,000 in 2025).

Source: ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional (YE Dec 2025 edition, Table 1)

Read the full net migration analysis →

Is the NHS waiting list coming down?

7.29m

Up 59% since 2020

NHS waiting list · England · December 2025 (latest month: August 2026, 7.37m pathways / 6.24m patients)

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NHS Elective Waiting List — England (millions of PATHWAYS) — Units: millions · December 2025 (latest month: August 2026, 7.37m pathways / 6.24m patients) · England · Source: NHS England, RTT Overview Timeseries (including estimates for missing trusts)
Year	Waiting list (m pathways)
2010	2.46
2011	2.42
2012	2.63
2013	2.94
2014	3.17
2015	3.53
2016	3.83
2017	4
2018	4.28
2019	4.57
2020	4.59
2021	6.07
2022	7.2
2023	7.61
2024	7.46
2025	7.29

Treatment pathways, not unique patients — one person waiting for two treatments counts twice. The list has edged down from its 2023 peak but remains close to three times its 2012 level.

Source: NHS England, RTT Overview Timeseries (including estimates for missing trusts)

Read the full nhs waiting list analysis →

Are homes getting more affordable?

7.6×

Broadly stable since 2020

Housing affordability · England · 2025 (released 26 March 2026)

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House Price to Earnings Ratio (England) — Units: ratio · 2025 (released 26 March 2026) · England · Source: ONS, Housing affordability in England and Wales: 2025 (Table 1c, median ratio)
Year	House price to earnings ratio
1997	3.54
1998	3.67
1999	3.96
2000	4.19
2001	4.5
2002	5.12
2003	5.93
2004	6.6
2005	6.79
2006	6.95
2007	7.15
2008	6.97
2009	6.4
2010	6.85
2011	6.8
2012	6.77
2013	6.76
2014	7.09
2015	7.54
2016	7.72
2017	7.91
2018	8.04
2019	7.88
2020	7.86
2021	9.06
2022	8.56
2023	8.45
2024	7.84
2025	7.63

Median house price divided by median full-time workplace-based earnings, England (ONS). 9.1 at the 2021 peak; 7.6 in 2025, against 3.5 in 1997.

Source: ONS, Housing affordability in England and Wales: 2025 (Table 1c, median ratio)

Read the full housing affordability analysis →

Is unemployment rising?

4.9%

Broadly stable since 2020

Unemployment · United Kingdom · 2025 (annual average; series last released 14 September 2026)

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UK Unemployment Rate (16+, %) — Units: % · 2025 (annual average; series last released 14 September 2026) · United Kingdom · Source: ONS, Labour market statistics (series MGSX) — official statistics in development
Year	Unemployment rate %
2010	7.9
2011	8.1
2012	7.9
2013	7.6
2014	6.2
2015	5.4
2016	4.9
2017	4.4
2018	4.1
2019	3.8
2020	4.6
2021	4.6
2022	3.8
2023	4.1
2024	4.3
2025	4.9

Labour Force Survey estimates lost accredited status in November 2023 and are published as official statistics in development — read the trend, not single-period moves.

Source: ONS, Labour market statistics (series MGSX) — official statistics in development

Read the full unemployment analysis →

Is government debt still climbing?

93.3%

Down 2.2 percentage points since 2020

Public debt · United Kingdom · 2025-26 (provisional; data as at 21 September 2026)

Provisional from 2025 — Latest year provisional.

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UK National Debt (% of GDP, end of financial year) — Units: % GDP · 2025-26 (provisional; data as at 21 September 2026) · United Kingdom · Source: ONS, Public sector finances (series HF6X); OBR Public Finances Databank
Year	Debt % of GDP
2010	70.6
2011	73.9
2012	77.2
2013	78.8
2014	81.1
2015	80.6
2016	82.7
2017	81.7
2018	79.7
2019	84.5
2020	95.5
2021	94.3
2022	93.1
2023	94.1
2024	93.4
2025	93.3

Debt as a share of the economy, not a cash total. It rose sharply with COVID and has been broadly flat since — high by recent standards, though not without precedent historically.

Source: ONS, Public sector finances (series HF6X); OBR Public Finances Databank

Read the full public debt analysis →

Is crime rising or falling?

4.33m

Down 23% since 2020

Crime (survey) · England and Wales · Year ending March 2026 (released 23 July 2026)

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Crime Survey Incidents — England and Wales (millions) — Units: millions · Year ending March 2026 (released 23 July 2026) · England and Wales · Source: ONS, Crime in England and Wales: Appendix Table A1a
Year	CSEW incidents (m, excl. fraud)
2010	9.54
2011	9.71
2012	9.59
2013	8.76
2014	7.55
2015	7.18
2016	6.53
2017	6.06
2018	6.25
2019	6.43
2020	5.66
2021	No data
2022	No data
2023	4.39
2024	4.59
2025	4.6
2026	4.33

Crime Survey incidents for England and Wales, excluding fraud. No figures exist for the years ending March 2021 and 2022 — COVID suspended interviewing, so the gap is real, not a dip.

Source: ONS, Crime in England and Wales: Appendix Table A1a

Read the full crime (survey) analysis →

How many children are below the poverty line?

27.4%

Down 3.3 percentage points since 2020

Child poverty · United Kingdom · FYE 2025 (released 26 March 2026)

Methodology break at 2021: DWP integrated benefit records into the survey — not comparable either side

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UK Child Poverty Rate (% below 60% median, after housing costs) — Units: % · FYE 2025 (released 26 March 2026) · United Kingdom · Source: DWP, Households Below Average Income (Table 1.4a)
Year	Child poverty % (AHC)
2011	27.2
2012	27
2013	27.2
2014	27.5
2015	28.5
2016	29.4
2017	30
2018	29.3
2019	29.4
2020	30.7
2021	27.1
2022	27.3
2023	28.8
2024	27.7
2025	27.4

A relative-income measure after housing costs, not a count of destitution. A break in series at 2021/22 means figures either side are not comparable.

Source: DWP, Households Below Average Income (Table 1.4a)

Read the full child poverty analysis →

These are observations, not forecasts. Where a series has a break — child poverty in 2021/22, crime during the COVID interviewing suspension — the chart shows it rather than smoothing over it, because a methodological step can look exactly like a real change if you hide it.