Budgets · United Kingdom · fiscal events since 2010

Help with bills now, tax rises later — and a thinner safety net

Budget 2026 spends £7.6bn this year easing energy bills, fuel and bus fares, then raises money from 2027 through higher taxes on businesses, savings and rental income and a crackdown on unpaid tax. It leaves the Government £14.5bn of room under its own borrowing rule — about half what Chancellors have usually kept. Here is what it means, and how it compares with past Budgets.

Evidence last reviewed 28 October 2026

Budget 2026 in two minutes

So what does it mean for you?

You get
£100
paid from January 2027 to homes in England in council tax bands A–D, plus no VAT on household electricity until July 2027 and fuel 6p a litre cheaper than planned.
Find your council tax band →
You pay
+2p
in every £ of tax on savings interest and rental income from April 2027. No change to income tax or National Insurance on wages.
Who pays
£7.6bn
from tax rises in 2029–30: about £6 in every £10 from businesses, banks and a crackdown on unpaid tax; £2.0bn from savers, landlords and investors.
The country
£14.5bn
left as a safety margin against the Government’s own borrowing rule — about half the usual. The OBR puts the chance of meeting the rule at 56%.

Who wins and who loses

The lowest-income tenth of households gain about £75 a year; the richest tenth lose about £105.

On the Treasury’s own analysis for 2027–28, the average household is £28 a year better off, and all but the top 20% gain on average. The figures include the value of public services, not just cash, and leave out business taxes, which people pay indirectly.

The tax take is forecast to reach 42.9% of national income, the highest since 1949–50. Where the tax comes from →

Average gain or loss per household, £ a year, 2027–28

Key: what income puts a household in each tenth?

Median gross household income in each tenth, £ a year, 2028–29, by household type. Larger households need more income to be in the same tenth.
Tenth	1 adult	1 adult and 1 child	2 adults	2 adults and 1 child	2 adults and 2 children
Lowest	£12,100	£16,800	£18,400	£23,700	£27,200
2	£18,200	£23,800	£27,800	£36,000	£42,000
3	£22,200	£29,000	£33,500	£43,400	£52,000
4	£26,300	£35,000	£39,000	£50,600	£60,600
5	£30,400	£40,000	£45,300	£60,000	£71,900
6	£35,400	£45,800	£53,300	£68,900	£83,200
7	£41,900	£58,800	£62,400	£81,000	£97,800
8	£50,100	£67,000	£74,200	£96,400	£116,700
9	£63,500	£95,000	£93,100	£121,600	£151,700
Highest	£102,400	£157,400	£149,200	£193,100	£240,000

Source: HM Treasury, Impact on households, Figure 1.B (values read from the chart). Excludes the £100 payment, which falls in 2026–27.

The safety margin: smaller than usual

The Government has promised that day-to-day spending will be paid for by taxes, not borrowing, by 2029–30. The “safety margin” (headroom) is how far its plans clear that rule on the OBR’s forecast — like the gap between your spending and your overdraft limit.

How much room has each Chancellor left against their own fiscal rule?

The £14.5bn margin in October 2026 is below the £27.2bn average of earlier forecasts

Margin (“headroom”) against the fiscal mandate in force at each OBR forecast, £ billion, November 2010 to October 2026. Each bar is a forecast made at that event, not an outturn.

Forecast margins at each fiscal event, 2010–2026

Headroom is how far the forecast clears the Government’s main fiscal rule. It fell from £21.7bn at the November 2025 Budget to £14.5bn now, with a 56% chance of meeting the rule on the OBR’s estimate. Since late 2022 margins have been small by historical standards: the average before this Budget was £27.2bn. A small margin means ordinary forecast changes can push the rule out of reach.

United Kingdom · November 2010 to October 2026 (30 forecasts) · OBR forecasts at the time of each event; none is an outturn.

The OBR estimates a 56% probability of meeting the mandate on current policy.

Show the workings

Geography:: United Kingdom
Measure:: £ billion in the target year of each forecast
Period:: November 2010 to October 2026 (30 forecasts)
Status:: OBR forecasts at the time of each event; none is an outturn.
Calculation:: As published by the OBR. The average is the OBR’s own figure for previous events.
Compare with:: Average of previous events £27.2bn; lowest £7.8bn (March 2023)
Uncertainty:: The OBR estimates a 56% probability of meeting the mandate on current policy.
Not included / breaks:: The fiscal mandate changed several times between 2010 and 2026 (target measure, target year and rolling or fixed horizon), so margins are measured against different rules and are not strictly like for like. The OBR publishes them together as a guide to how much room Chancellors have chosen to leave.

Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2026 (charts and tables), Chart 7.7 (margin against the fiscal mandate at each forecast) (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table

OBR forecast	Margin £bn	Probability of meeting the mandate %
November 2010	31.9	70
March 2011	28.3	70
November 2011	17.7	60
March 2012	17.7	60
December 2012	31.9	70
March 2013	14.2	70
December 2013	56.7	80
March 2014	53.1	75
December 2014	81.5	80
March 2015	28.3	65
July 2015	39.0	55
November 2015	17.7	55
March 2016	16.9	55
November 2016	41.8	65
March 2017	40.5	65
November 2017	23.5	65
March 2018	24.3	65
October 2018	24.0	65
March 2019	41.5	75
March 2020	16.8	55
October 2021	23.3	55
March 2022	36.2	58
November 2022	11.1	53
March 2023	7.8	52
November 2023	12.9	56
March 2024	8.9	54
October 2024	9.9	54
March 2025	9.9	54
November 2025	21.7	59
October 2026	14.5	56

Did each Budget give money away or claw it back?

Each bar nets off one Budget’s tax rises and cuts against its spending decisions. Bars to the right added to borrowing (a giveaway); bars to the left reduced it.

Did each fiscal event loosen or tighten policy, and by how much?

This Budget’s decisions are close to neutral over five years (-0.02% of GDP); October 2024 was the largest loosening since July 2020

Net effect of each event’s policy decisions on borrowing, average over the five-year forecast, % of GDP. Positive = adds to borrowing (net loosening); negative = reduces it (net tightening).

Policy package sizes, 2010–2026

June 2010-1.28%
November 2010-0.02%
March 2011+0.04%
November 2011-0.52%
March 2012-0.10%
December 2012-0.30%
March 2013-0.13%
December 2013-0.30%
March 2014+0.02%
December 2014-0.39%
March 2015+0.42%
July 2015+0.03%
November 2015+0.18%
March 2016-0.14%
November 2016+0.28%
March 2017+0.05%
November 2017+0.13%
March 20180.00%
October 2018+0.65%
March 2019+0.06%
March 2020+0.91%
July 2020+1.98%
November 2020-0.31%
March 2021-0.20%
October 2021+0.33%
March 2022+0.13%
November 2022-0.29%
March 2023+0.57%
November 2023+0.64%
March 2024+0.27%
October 2024+1.02%
March 2025-0.12%
November 2025-0.04%
March 2026+0.13%
October 2026-0.02%

Each bar nets off one event’s tax and spending decisions against each other. This Budget is close to neutral over five years, but that hides timing: decisions add £7.6bn to borrowing in 2026–27 and reduce it by £5.2bn in 2029–30, the year the rules are tested. Later savings are less certain than earlier costs, because they depend on future decisions being carried through.

United Kingdom · June 2010 to October 2026 (35 fiscal events) · OBR estimates at each event; later events can reverse or extend earlier decisions.

Show the workings

Geography:: United Kingdom
Measure:: % of GDP, five-year average
Period:: June 2010 to October 2026 (35 fiscal events)
Status:: OBR estimates at each event; later events can reverse or extend earlier decisions.
Calculation:: As published by the OBR, including the indirect effects of policy on the economy where the OBR scored them.
Compare with:: Largest: July 2020 (+1.98% of GDP)
Not included / breaks:: A near-zero package can still contain large offsetting measures: this Budget costs money in its first two years and raises it later. Package size says nothing about who gains or loses.

Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2026 (charts and tables), Chart 3.2 (size of fiscal policy packages) (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table

Fiscal event	% of GDP, five-year average
June 2010	-1.28
November 2010	-0.02
March 2011	0.04
November 2011	-0.52
March 2012	-0.10
December 2012	-0.30
March 2013	-0.13
December 2013	-0.30
March 2014	0.02
December 2014	-0.39
March 2015	0.42
July 2015	0.03
November 2015	0.18
March 2016	-0.14
November 2016	0.28
March 2017	0.05
November 2017	0.13
March 2018	0.00
October 2018	0.65
March 2019	0.06
March 2020	0.91
July 2020	1.98
November 2020	-0.31
March 2021	-0.20
October 2021	0.33
March 2022	0.13
November 2022	-0.29
March 2023	0.57
November 2023	0.64
March 2024	0.27
October 2024	1.02
March 2025	-0.12
November 2025	-0.04
March 2026	0.13
October 2026	-0.02

Borrowing keeps being forecast to fall — later

Each line is one autumn forecast of how much the Government will borrow each year, as a share of the economy. The black line is what actually happened.

How have forecasts for borrowing changed from one Budget to the next?

Every autumn forecast since 2022 shows borrowing falling, but each since 2024 has started from a higher level

Public sector net borrowing, % of GDP, financial years from 2021–22: ONS outturn and five successive OBR autumn forecasts (November 2022 to October 2026). Earlier outturn, including the 2020–21 pandemic peak, is in the data table.

OBR forecasts, not outturn, beyond 2025–26

Every autumn forecast since 2022 has shown borrowing falling over its five years. The outturn has come in above most of those paths, and later forecasts start from a higher point. The October 2026 forecast has borrowing at 4.2% of GDP in 2026–27, falling to 1.8% by 2031–32. Whether that fall happens depends on spending restraint and tax rises that are mostly scheduled for later years.

United Kingdom · Chart: 2021–22 to 2031–32 (forecasts to then); table: outturn from 2011–12 · Outturn is ONS data as used by the OBR; every other line is a forecast.

Show the workings

Geography:: United Kingdom
Measure:: % of GDP
Period:: Chart: 2021–22 to 2031–32 (forecasts to then); table: outturn from 2011–12
Status:: Outturn is ONS data as used by the OBR; every other line is a forecast.
Calculation:: As published by the OBR. Spring forecasts are not shown; the OBR chart compares autumn events.
Compare with:: For 2029–30: November 2025 forecast 1.9%; October 2026 forecast 2.1%
Not included / breaks:: Each forecast reflects the policy and economic news known when it was made. Differences between lines mix forecasting error with later policy decisions, so a higher later line is not by itself evidence of a worse forecast.

Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2026 (charts and tables), Chart 1.8 (successive forecasts for borrowing) (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table

Financial year	Outturn	November 2022 forecast	November 2023 forecast	October 2024 forecast	November 2025 forecast	October 2026 forecast
2011–12	7.3	—	—	—	—	—
2012–13	7.1	—	—	—	—	—
2013–14	5.7	—	—	—	—	—
2014–15	5.2	—	—	—	—	—
2015–16	4.1	—	—	—	—	—
2016–17	2.8	—	—	—	—	—
2017–18	2.9	—	—	—	—	—
2018–19	2.0	—	—	—	—	—
2019–20	2.6	—	—	—	—	—
2020–21	14.7	—	—	—	—	—
2021–22	4.8	5.5	—	—	—	—
2022–23	4.7	6.7	4.9	—	—	—
2023–24	4.8	5.0	4.4	4.4	—	—
2024–25	5.1	2.9	2.9	4.3	5.1	5.1
2025–26	4.4	2.5	2.5	3.4	4.5	4.4
2026–27	—	2.5	2.1	2.8	3.5	4.2
2027–28	—	2.1	1.5	2.2	3.0	3.4
2028–29	—	—	1.0	2.1	2.5	2.9
2029–30	—	—	—	2.0	1.9	2.1
2030–31	—	—	—	—	1.8	1.8
2031–32	—	—	—	—	—	1.8

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

Every Budget since 2010 side by side

The OBR’s two cross-event series, joined on the month of each forecast. Headroom is in £ billion against whichever fiscal mandate was in force; package size is the five-year net effect of that event’s decisions. A dash means the OBR publishes no figure for that event in that series.

Headroom and policy package size at each fiscal event, OBR
Fiscal event (OBR forecast)	Headroom £bn	Chance of meeting the rule	Package, % of GDP
October 2026	14.5	56%	-0.02
March 2026	—	—	+0.13
November 2025	21.7	59%	-0.04
March 2025	9.9	54%	-0.12
October 2024	9.9	54%	+1.02
March 2024	8.9	54%	+0.27
November 2023	12.9	56%	+0.64
March 2023	7.8	52%	+0.57
November 2022	11.1	53%	-0.29
March 2022	36.2	58%	+0.13
October 2021	23.3	55%	+0.33
March 2021	—	—	-0.20
November 2020	—	—	-0.31
July 2020	—	—	+1.98
March 2020	16.8	55%	+0.91
March 2019	41.5	75%	+0.06
October 2018	24.0	65%	+0.65
March 2018	24.3	65%	0.00
November 2017	23.5	65%	+0.13
March 2017	40.5	65%	+0.05
November 2016	41.8	65%	+0.28
March 2016	16.9	55%	-0.14
November 2015	17.7	55%	+0.18
July 2015	39.0	55%	+0.03
March 2015	28.3	65%	+0.42
December 2014	81.5	80%	-0.39
March 2014	53.1	75%	+0.02
December 2013	56.7	80%	-0.30
March 2013	14.2	70%	-0.13
December 2012	31.9	70%	-0.30
March 2012	17.7	60%	-0.10
November 2011	17.7	60%	-0.52
March 2011	28.3	70%	+0.04
November 2010	31.9	70%	-0.02
June 2010	—	—	-1.28

Measure-by-measure pages exist from Budget 2026 onwards. Earlier events appear here only through the OBR’s published comparisons; their individual measures are not yet recorded on this site.

Where Budget 2026 lands

Pick a topic to see the measures that affect it and what they cost.

Sources and methods (2)

OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2026 (charts and tables) (released 28 October 2026) — headroom at each forecast (Chart 7.7), package sizes (Chart 3.2), successive borrowing forecasts (Chart 1.8)
HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Tables 6.1 and 6.2 (released 28 October 2026) — Budget 2026 measure counts and topic links

Method notes

All cross-event comparisons are the OBR’s own published series from the October 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook; nothing is spliced from different publications. Spring and autumn events are both shown where the OBR shows them.
Headroom is the margin against the fiscal mandate in force at the time. The mandate has changed several times since 2010 (measure, target year and horizon), so margins are a guide to the room left, not a like-for-like series.
The OBR’s chart of successive debt forecasts (Chart 7.2) is not used: its forecast columns are unlabelled in the published workbook, and assigning them by position would be a guess.
Topic links use UK Facts’ classification of each Treasury measure, set out on the Budget 2026 page; ONS public sector finances data never contains Budget measures, so it is not a source here.