CPI inflation is 3.5% in September 2026, below 11.1% in October 2022. A lower rate does not mean lower prices.
CPI inflation: 11.1% in October 2022 and 3.5% in September 2026. A lower positive rate means slower price rises, not falling prices.
The claim
Inflation has come down, so prices have come down / things are getting cheaper again.
What is true
The 12-month rate is 7.6 percentage points below the October 2022 peak. Both figures are monthly 12-month CPI rates, not annual averages.
Put it in scale
11.1%
CPI rate: October 2022
Peak monthly 12-month rate since January 2021; not the 2022 annual average.
3.5%
CPI rate: September 2026
A falling RATE still means prices are rising — just more slowly than before.
144.1
CPI price index: September 2026 (2015 = 100)
The overall price level, not an inflation rate or any household’s own bill.
What we know / don’t know
Will prices ever fall back to their pre-2022 level?
Returning to an earlier overall price level would require enough subsequent price falls. A lower positive inflation rate alone cannot do that; this card does not forecast future prices.
The verdict
Lower inflation means prices are rising more slowly. It does not put prices back down.
Every number on this card
| Figure | What it counts | Geography · period | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.1% | 12-month CPI rate at the recent peakPeak monthly 12-month rate since January 2021; not the 2022 annual average. | United Kingdom · October 2022 | KNOWN | ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 |
| 3.5% | Latest 12-month CPI rateA falling RATE still means prices are rising — just more slowly than before. | United Kingdom · September 2026 | KNOWN | ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 |
| 144.1 | CPI price index (2015 = 100)The overall price level, not an inflation rate or any household’s own bill. | United Kingdom · September 2026 | KNOWN | ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 |
- CPI measures a representative national basket, not any individual household — households spending more on energy and food felt considerably higher inflation than the headline rate during 2022-23.
Verified against primary sources: 2026-10-11.