Headline evidence · Inflation · United Kingdom · January 2021–September 2026

A £100 basket in January 2021 now costs £132. Lower inflation would slow that rise, not reverse it.

A basket costing £100 in January 2021 cost £132.20 in September 2026. Annual inflation was 3.5%, above the 2% target. Slower inflation means prices rise more slowly; it does not mean they fall.

Proposed outcome: Protect what people can afford, especially when essential bills jump. What could change →

Geography
UK
Evidence period
January 2021 to September 2026
Evidence status
Site calculation from published data
Editorial review
Reviewed 11 October 2026

The short version

Three key measures

  • What does a basket costing £100 in January 2021 cost now?

    £132.20in September 2026

    What the same national basket of goods and services costs now. Your own spending may differ.

    UK · January 2021 to September 2026 · Site calculation from published data

    Definition, limits and source: What does a basket costing £100 in January 2021 cost now?

    The overall CPI basket, indexed so January 2021 = £100: prices rose 32.2% to September 2026 — the ratio of the two index values (109 and 144.1). At the 2% target they would have risen 11.9%. The whole basket, not just groceries or any one household’s spending; the 3.5% annual rate is a separate measure.

    Site calculation from published data · ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), series D7BT

    What £100 then buys now →

  • How fast are prices rising now?

    3.5%a year

    The annual pace of price rises. Slower inflation does not undo earlier increases.

    UK · 12 months to September 2026

    Definition, limits and source: How fast are prices rising now?

    CPI, 12 months to September 2026 — up from 3.1% in August 2026. The peak was 11.1% in October 2022; the Bank of England's target is 2%.

    Published statistics · ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026, series D7G7 (12-month rate) and D7BT (index)

    The latest rate and its matched year →

  • Have prices come down since the peak?

    +14.2%since the peak

    Prices continued rising after inflation peaked. A falling inflation rate is not the same as falling prices.

    UK · October 2022 to September 2026

    Definition, limits and source: Have prices come down since the peak?

    No. Prices have risen a further 14.2% since inflation peaked in October 2022. The last time prices were lower than a year earlier was October 2015.

    Site calculation from published data · ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), series D7BT and D7G7

    Which prices are rising most? →
What it means day to day

The rate is a speed; the price level is the distance travelled. Something that cost £100 in September 2025 cost about £103.50 in September 2026 if its price rose in line with the average. Over the whole period since January 2021 the same basket rose to £132.20. Annual rates cannot be added or subtracted to get that figure; it comes from the index.

Budget 2026 · 28 October 2026

What the Budget means for inflation

7

Budget measures on this topic

£4.5bn

Net cost, 2026–27

£170m

Net saving or gain, 2029–30

Biggest single-year effect of each measure · red costs money, teal saves or raises it

  • Household Energy Payment2026–27−£2.6bn
  • Fuel Duty2027–28−£780m
  • Support for Energy Bills2026–27−£755m
  • Great British Summer Savings Scheme2026–27−£310m
  • Bus Fares2027–28−£180m
  • Bus Travel2026–27−£145m
All 7 measures on this topic
The Budget in 2 minutes →Is it being delivered? →

Treasury costings certified by the OBR, not measured results. Topic links are UK Facts’ classification.

The evidence

The longer record, and what people expect

Annual data: CPI inflation each December

The fixed 1996–2026 window shows December observations through 2025. December 2026 has not happened; its dash is not zero and August’s latest rate is not substituted for it. CPI was first published as HICP in February 1997, with the first 12-month rate for January 1997. The earlier rate is a historical estimate and is kept separate. Monthly panels elsewhere on this page retain the January 2000 start and show seasonal rises and falls in the price level. A dash means no comparable observation is supplied; it is not zero. UK consumer prices; a December snapshot is not the average inflation rate during that year.

1996–2026; % change on the same month a year earlier. No change is calculated across definition or assessment breaks.

CPI inflation each December; % change on the same month a year earlier
YearHistorical estimate (1996)Published series (1997–2025)
19962.3—
1997—1.7
1998—1.6
1999—1.1
2000—0.8
2001—1.1
2002—1.7
2003—1.3
2004—1.7
2005—1.9
2006—3
2007—2.1
2008—3.1
2009—2.9
2010—3.7
2011—4.2
2012—2.7
2013—2
2014—0.5
2015—0.2
2016—1.6
2017—3
2018—2.1
2019—1.3
2020—0.6
2021—5.4
2022—10.5
2023—4
2024—2.5
2025—3.4
2026No comparable observations supplied

ONS CPI annual-rate series D7G7 · Historical-series methodology

People expected prices to rise by 3.2% over the next year

Bank of England / Savanta, August 2026. These are survey medians among UK adults aged 16–75. They describe people’s perceptions and expectations, not measured CPI inflation or the Bank’s forecast.

Median expected or perceived price rise, %
  • Perceived price rises over the past year4.9%
  • Expected price rises over the next year3.2%
  • Expected price rises in the year after next2.9%
  • Expected annual price rises in five years3.2%
Survey questions, sample and the provider change

Savanta interviewed 2,073 people online from 31 July to 7 August 2026. The quota panel covers ages 16–75; it excludes older adults. Quotas cover age, gender, region and working status. Weighting aligns gender and region, plus age, social grade and working status within gender, using the inherited population profile. This is not a probability sample of every UK adult. The published methods do not supply a response rate or confidence interval for these medians; no simple random-sample margin of error or significance claim is added.

Published headline medians; each main question has a weighted and unweighted base of 2,073
QuestionMedian
Which of these options best describes how prices have changed over the last 12 months?4.9%
How much would you expect prices in the shops generally to change over the next 12 months?3.2%
And how about prices the year after next? How much would you expect prices in the shops generally to change between August 2027 and August 2028?2.9%
And how about the longer term, say in five years time? How much would you expect prices in the shops generally to change over a year then?3.2%

The main questions use response bands, with additional questions about larger rises or falls. These medians come from the published long-run summary; conditional follow-up sample sizes are not substituted for the main question’s base.

Savanta replaced Ipsos in August. In the May parallel survey, the next-year median was 3.6% with Savanta and 4.0% with Ipsos. Comparing the May headline of 4.0% with August’s 3.2% mixes provider differences with changes in expectations. The long-run record also changed provider in February 2016 and February 2022. Collection moved from face-to-face to online in May 2020; the display of “don’t know” changed then and was restored in August. No change across these breaks is calculated here.

Bank of England release, original tables and survey methodology

Annual data: Next-year inflation expectations: August survey snapshots

One August observation per year, 2000–2026, rather than an annual average of quarterly medians. The survey began in November 1999, so no August 1999 observation exists. Missing years in the fixed 1996–2026 window are not zero. Columns separate provider and collection regimes; they must not be read as a single uninterrupted trend. The August 2020 observation follows the restoration of the visible ‘don’t know’ option. A dash means no comparable observation is supplied; it is not zero. Survey respondents; the current population is UK adults aged 16–75. Earlier modes and samples differ.

1996–2026; median expected price rise, %. No change is calculated across definition or assessment breaks.

Next-year inflation expectations: August survey snapshots; median expected price rise, %
YearFace-to-face, 2000–2015New provider, 2016–2019Online, 2020–2021Ipsos online, 2022–2025Savanta online, 2026
1996–1999No comparable observations supplied
20002.2————
20012.2————
20022.1————
20032.2————
20042.3————
20052.2————
20062.5————
20072.7————
20084.4————
20092.4————
20103.4————
20114.2————
20123.2————
20133.2————
20142.8————
20152————
2016—2.2———
2017—2.8———
2018—3———
2019—3.3———
2020——2.8——
2021——2.7——
2022———4.9—
2023———3.6—
2024———2.7—
2025———3.6—
2026————3.2

Prices are about double their 1996 level

Over 30 years the CPI basket rose 101.2% (annual averages, 1996 to 2025): £100 of 1996 shopping now costs about £201. This is a longer, separate window from the monthly chart below, which starts in January 2021.

How much higher are prices than 30 years ago?

Prices are 101% above their 1996 level: £100 of shopping then costs about £201 now

United Kingdom · 1996 to 2025, annual averages

1996–2026 · recorded figures.

CPI price level (1996 = 100)50100150200250axis does not start at 0200020102020Prices 201.2 (+101.2%)1996 = 1002021

Prices are about twice their level of 30 years ago. Slower inflation does not bring the price level back down.

United Kingdom · 1996 to 2025, annual averages · Official statistics; CPI is not revised except to correct errors

Show the workings — Prices are 101% above their 1996 level: £100 of shopping then costs about £201 now

The CPI price level, UK, annual averages, 1996 to 2025, rebased so 1996 = 100. A separate, longer window from the monthly chart above (January 2021 onwards); the two are not spliced.

The CPI basket cost 101.2% more in 2025 than in 1996 (annual averages), so £100 of 1996 shopping costs about £201. Annual rates in the chart above are speeds; this is the distance travelled, and it does not fall back when inflation slows.

Geography:
United Kingdom — Consumer spending by all households and visitors in the UK
Measure:
Index, 1996 = 100
Period:
1996 to 2025, annual averages
Status:
Official statistics; CPI is not revised except to correct errors
Calculation:
D7BT annual average divided by its 1996 value (68.8) × 100, one decimal place. 2025: 138.4, so 101.2% above 1996.
Compare with:
The 1996 price level
Not included / breaks:
CPI excludes owner-occupiers’ housing costs and council tax (CPIH includes them). It is an average basket: no household buys exactly this mix. A price level says nothing about whether pay kept up; the next chart sets pay beside it.

Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), series D7BT, annual averages (2015 = 100) (released 21 October 2026).

View the data as a table
YearPrice level (1996 = 100)
1996100.0
1997101.9
1998103.5
1999104.8
2000105.7
2001107.0
2002108.3
2003109.7
2004111.2
2005113.5
2006116.1
2007118.9
2008123.1
2009125.9
2010129.9
2011135.8
2012139.7
2013143.2
2014145.3
2015145.3
2016146.4
2017150.3
2018153.9
2019156.7
2020158.0
2021162.2
2022176.9
2023189.7
2024194.6
2025201.2

If inflation has fallen, why do prices still feel high?

Inflation can fall while prices keep rising

United Kingdom · January 2000 to September 2026

Speed: annual inflation, %

1996–2026 · recorded figures. Shading marks years without figures: this series starts in 2000.

% change on a year earlier-5%0%5%10%15%2000201020203.5%Bank of England target, 2%Peak 11.1%, October 2022

Level: the price of the basket, January 2021 = 100

1996–2026 · recorded figures. Shading marks years without figures: this series starts in 2000.

CPI price level (January 2021 = 100)6080100120140axis does not start at 0200020102020132.2 (+32.2%)January 2021 = 100

In September 2026, prices were 3.5% higher than a year earlier; the basket cost 32.2% more than in January 2021.

Slower inflation means prices rise more slowly. It does not mean they return to earlier levels. Prices can fall for a month and still be higher than a year before.

United Kingdom · January 2000 to September 2026 · Official statistics; CPI is not revised except to correct errors

Show the workings — Inflation can fall while prices keep rising

Top: annual CPI inflation, % change on the same month a year earlier. Bottom: the CPI price level, rebased so January 2021 = 100. UK, monthly, January 2000 to September 2026. Same dates, separate scales.

The top line is the speed of price rises; the bottom line is the level they have reached. Inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 and is 3.5% now, the latest price level is 132.2 on this scale, 14.2% above the peak month. The monthly price level can fall while remaining higher than a year earlier. A negative 12-month rate means prices are lower than in the same month a year before; the latest such month was October 2015.

Geography:
United Kingdom — Consumer spending by all households and visitors in the UK
Measure:
Top: per cent a year. Bottom: index, January 2021 = 100
Period:
January 2000 to September 2026
Status:
Official statistics; CPI is not revised except to correct errors
Calculation:
Top panel as published. Bottom panel: D7BT divided by its January 2021 value (109) × 100, one decimal place.
Compare with:
The Bank of England's 2% target; the January 2021 price level
Not included / breaks:
CPI excludes owner-occupiers’ housing costs and council tax (CPIH includes them). It is an average basket: no household buys exactly this mix.

Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), series D7G7 and D7BT (released 21 October 2026).

View the data as a table
MonthCPI 12-month rate (%)Price level (January 2021 = 100)
Jan 20000.866.0
Jan 20010.966.6
Jan 20021.667.6
Jan 20031.368.5
Jan 20041.469.5
Jan 20051.670.6
Jan 20061.972.0
Jan 20072.773.9
Jan 20082.275.6
Jan 20093.077.9
Jan 20103.580.6
Jan 20114.083.8
Jan 20123.686.8
Jan 20132.789.1
Jan 20141.990.8
Jan 20150.391.1
Jan 20160.391.3
Jan 20171.893.0
Jan 20183.095.8
Jan 20191.897.5
Jan 20201.899.3
Jan 20210.7100.0
Feb 20210.4100.1
Mar 20210.7100.4
Apr 20211.5101.0
May 20212.1101.7
Jun 20212.5102.1
Jul 20212.0102.1
Aug 20213.2102.8
Sep 20213.1103.1
Oct 20214.2104.2
Nov 20215.1105.0
Dec 20215.4105.6
Jan 20225.5105.4
Feb 20226.2106.2
Mar 20227.0107.4
Apr 20229.0110.1
May 20229.1110.8
Jun 20229.4111.7
Jul 202210.1112.4
Aug 20229.9112.9
Sep 202210.1113.6
Oct 202211.1115.8
Nov 202210.7116.2
Dec 202210.5116.7
Jan 202310.1116.0
Feb 202310.4117.3
Mar 202310.1118.3
Apr 20238.7119.6
May 20238.7120.5
Jun 20237.9120.6
Jul 20236.8120.1
Aug 20236.7120.5
Sep 20236.7121.1
Oct 20234.6121.1
Nov 20233.9120.8
Dec 20234.0121.3
Jan 20244.0120.6
Feb 20243.4121.4
Mar 20243.2122.0
Apr 20242.3122.5
May 20242.0122.8
Jun 20242.0123.0
Jul 20242.2122.8
Aug 20242.2123.2
Sep 20241.7123.1
Oct 20242.3123.9
Nov 20242.6123.9
Dec 20242.5124.4
Jan 20253.0124.2
Feb 20252.8124.8
Mar 20252.6125.2
Apr 20253.5126.8
May 20253.4127.0
Jun 20253.6127.4
Jul 20253.8127.5
Aug 20253.8127.8
Sep 20253.8127.8
Oct 20253.6128.3
Nov 20253.2128.0
Dec 20253.4128.5
Jan 20263.0128.0
Feb 20263.0128.5
Mar 20263.3129.4
Apr 20262.8130.4
May 20262.8130.6
Jun 20262.6130.7
Jul 20262.9131.1
Aug 20263.1131.7
Sep 20263.5132.2

Pay beside prices

In cash, mean weekly pay rose 132.6% from 2000 to 2025 and the CPI price level 90.4%. Since 2021 the two are close: pay 25.5%, prices 24.0%. This is average pay, not the typical worker, and a separate window from the 30-year price chart because the pay series starts in 2000. What happened to pay.

Has pay kept up with prices?

Mean pay rose 133% in cash from 2000 to 2025; prices rose 90%

Pay: Great Britain. Prices: United Kingdom · 2000 to 2025, annual averages

1996–2026 · recorded figures. Shading marks years without figures: this series starts in 2000.

Index, 2000 = 10050100150200250axis does not start at 0200020102020Prices 190.4Pay 232.62000 = 100

In cash, average pay has risen faster than prices since 2000, and at about the same pace since 2021. These are averages, not the typical worker.

Pay: Great Britain. Prices: United Kingdom · 2000 to 2025, annual averages · Official statistics; recent earnings months may be revised

Show the workings — Mean pay rose 133% in cash from 2000 to 2025; prices rose 90%

Mean weekly total pay, whole economy, Great Britain (ONS KAB9, cash, not adjusted for prices) and the CPI price level, UK, annual averages, 2000 to 2025, each rebased so 2000 = 100. A separate window from the 1996 price-level chart: the pay series starts in 2000.

In cash, mean weekly pay rose 132.6% from 2000 to 2025 and the CPI price level 90.4%. Since 2021 the two are close: pay 25.5% against prices 24.0%. Average pay roughly kept pace with prices over these windows; that does not mean lost ground was recovered for every group, and the 2007 pay turning point is on the economy page.

Geography:
Pay: Great Britain. Prices: United Kingdom — Employees (pay); consumer spending (prices)
Measure:
Index, 2000 = 100 (not £)
Period:
2000 to 2025, annual averages
Status:
Official statistics; recent earnings months may be revised
Calculation:
Site calculation. Pay: KAB9 annual average ÷ its 2000 value (£313 a week) × 100. Prices: D7BT annual average ÷ its 2000 value (72.7) × 100. Over the shorter window from 2021 to 2025, pay rose 25.5% and prices 24.0%.
Compare with:
The CPI price level on the same rebased scale
Not included / breaks:
A mean, pulled up by high earners; it is not the typical worker (the median pay comparison is on the economy page). Pay is before tax and is not the same people followed over time. CPI excludes owner-occupiers’ housing costs and council tax. Two averages moving together says nothing about any one household.

Source: ONS, Average weekly earnings: whole economy level, total pay, series KAB9 (annual averages of monthly values).

View the data as a table
YearPrices (2000 = 100)Mean weekly pay, cash (2000 = 100)
2000100.0100.0
2001101.2105.1
2002102.5108.3
2003103.9111.8
2004105.2116.6
2005107.4122.0
2006109.9127.8
2007112.5134.2
2008116.5138.7
2009119.1138.7
2010123.0141.9
2011128.5145.4
2012132.2147.3
2013135.5148.9
2014137.6150.5
2015137.6154.0
2016138.5157.8
2017142.2161.3
2018145.7166.1
2019148.3171.9
2020149.5174.8
2021153.5185.3
2022167.4196.8
2023179.5210.5
2024184.2221.7
2025190.4232.6

The latest rate and its matched year

3.5% is the change in consumer prices over the twelve months to September 2026: prices in September 2026 compared with September 2025. It is not the change since last month. The rate was up from 3.1% in August 2026.

The Bank of England is asked to keep CPI inflation at 2%. A rate above 2% means prices are rising faster than the target; a falling positive annual rate means the pace of year-on-year price increases is slowing. Prices are lower than in the same month a year before when the annual rate goes below zero; this last happened in October 2015. The 11.1% of October 2022 is the highest in the official CPI series, which starts in January 1989.

What £100 then buys now

What happened to a £100 basket?

£100 of spending in January 2021 cost £132.20 in September 2026

United Kingdom · September 2025 to September 2026; January 2021 to September 2026

One year: September 2025 to September 2026

  • September 2025£100.00
  • September 2026£103.50

Since January 2021

  • January 2021£100.00
  • September 2026£132.20

Bars start at £0.

The accumulated rise in prices is what matters at the till. A lower yearly inflation rate does not undo earlier increases. Your own spending may differ from this national basket.

United Kingdom · September 2025 to September 2026; January 2021 to September 2026 · Site calculation from official statistics

Show the workings — £100 of spending in January 2021 cost £132.20 in September 2026

The cost of the same CPI basket of goods and services at two dates, for £100 at the earlier date. Bars start at zero.

At 3.5% a year, £100 of spending in September 2025 cost £103.50 in September 2026. Over the whole episode the change is far larger: the same basket that cost £100 in January 2021 cost £132.20 in September 2026. That accumulated rise is what households notice at the till, and a lower annual rate does not undo it.

Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
£ for the same basket
Period:
September 2025 to September 2026; January 2021 to September 2026
Status:
Site calculation from official statistics
Calculation:
One year: £100 × (1 + 3.5/100), using the published 12-month rate so the example matches the headline. Since January 2021: £100 × 144.1 ÷ 109, the ratio of the published index values.
Compare with:
£100 at the earlier date
Not included / breaks:
ONS calculates the published rate from unrounded indices, so the ratio of the rounded index values can differ from the rate by a few pence per £100. Your own basket will differ.

Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), series D7G7 and D7BT (released 21 October 2026).

View the data as a table
ComparisonEarlier dateLater dateCost of £100 basket
One yearSeptember 2025September 2026£103.50
Since January 2021January 2021September 2026£132.20

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

Which prices contributed most?

ONS splits the annual rate into contributions from each area of spending. They add up to the headline rate, so they show exactly which prices moved it — though not why. Transport made the largest upward contribution to the rise in the rate from August 2026 (+0.25 points).

Which prices contributed most?

Transport added most to inflation in September 2026

United Kingdom · 12 months to September 2026; table adds August 2026 and the October 2022 peak
  • Transport (incl. motor fuels)0.94
  • Housing and household services (incl. energy bills)0.69
  • Restaurants and hotels0.53
  • Recreation and culture0.34
  • Miscellaneous goods and services0.30
  • Education0.16
  • Food and non-alcoholic drinks0.14
  • Communication0.14
  • Alcohol and tobacco0.09
  • Health0.09
  • Furniture and household goods0.06
  • Clothing and footwear0.01

Percentage points of the annual rate. Bars start at zero; negative values pull inflation down.

Transport added most to the latest annual price rise. At the peak, gas and electricity were much more important. The chart shows where prices rose, not every reason why.

United Kingdom · 12 months to September 2026; table adds August 2026 and the October 2022 peak · Official statistics

Show the workings — Transport added most to inflation in September 2026

Percentage points contributed by each spending division to the 3.5% CPI 12-month rate, UK, September 2026. Contributions sum to the rate (with a small rounding effect of 0.01).

Transport (incl. motor fuels) contributed 0.94 points of the 3.5%. Transport made the largest upward contribution to the rise in the rate from August 2026 (+0.25 points). At the peak the picture was different: housing and household services, which includes gas and electricity, contributed 3.70 points on its own in October 2022. The contribution analysis reconciles exactly with the headline rate; the causes behind each category need other evidence.

Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
Percentage points of the 12-month rate
Period:
12 months to September 2026; table adds August 2026 and the October 2022 peak
Status:
Official statistics
Calculation:
As published by ONS. The chart shows the latest month; the table also gives the previous month and the peak month.
Compare with:
The same divisions at the October 2022 peak
Not included / breaks:
A contribution combines how fast a category’s prices rose with its share of the average budget. It says which prices moved the index, not why.

Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), contributions to the CPI 12-month rate, series WUMA–WUNG and E8PS (released 21 October 2026).

View the data as a table
DivisionSep 2026 (pts)Aug 2026 (pts)Oct 2022 (pts)
Transport (incl. motor fuels)0.940.691.24
Housing and household services (incl. energy bills)0.690.633.70
Restaurants and hotels0.530.571.12
Recreation and culture0.340.240.79
Miscellaneous goods and services0.300.270.48
Education0.160.160.11
Food and non-alcoholic drinks0.140.141.84
Communication0.140.130.08
Alcohol and tobacco0.090.100.29
Health0.090.100.09
Furniture and household goods0.060.040.76
Clothing and footwear0.010.020.55
Rounding effect0.010.010.05
All items (12-month rate, %)3.53.111.1

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

Is inflation still about food and energy?

Food inflation fell from 19.1% to 1.3%; services inflation is 3.7%

United Kingdom · January 2000 to September 2026

1996–2026 · recorded figures. Shading marks years without figures: this series starts in 2000.

% change on a year earlier-10%0%10%20%30%2000201020201.3%3.7%3.2%2% target (all items)

Food price rises have slowed sharply. Services prices have been slower to settle, helping keep overall inflation above the target.

United Kingdom · January 2000 to September 2026 · Official statistics

Show the workings — Food inflation fell from 19.1% to 1.3%; services inflation is 3.7%

CPI 12-month rates for food and non-alcoholic drinks, all services and all goods, UK, monthly, January 2000 to September 2026.

The 2022–23 surge began in goods — energy, then food, which peaked at 19.1% in March 2023. Services inflation, which depends more on wages and is watched closely by the Bank of England, peaked later (7.4% in May 2023) and is 3.7% now, against 3.2% for goods. Persistent services inflation is one reason the overall rate has stayed above 2%.

Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
Per cent change over 12 months
Period:
January 2000 to September 2026
Status:
Official statistics
Calculation:
As published.
Compare with:
All-items CPI, 3.5%
Not included / breaks:
Goods include food and energy, so the food line is part of the goods line. Household energy is shown separately (PRICE-05) because its swings would flatten this chart.

Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), series D7G8 (food), D7GT (electricity, gas and other fuels), D7NM (goods), D7NN (services) (released 21 October 2026).

View the data as a table
MonthFood (%)Services (%)Goods (%)
Jan 2000-2.03.4-0.8
Jan 20011.53.4-1.0
Jan 20024.04.0-0.2
Jan 2003-1.14.4-1.2
Jan 20042.63.1-0.1
Jan 20050.43.7-0.2
Jan 20061.23.90.3
Jan 20073.93.62.0
Jan 20086.13.31.3
Jan 200910.24.22.0
Jan 20101.93.03.9
Jan 20116.34.13.8
Jan 20123.53.63.5
Jan 20134.23.71.9
Jan 20142.02.41.4
Jan 2015-2.52.4-1.5
Jan 2016-2.62.3-1.5
Jan 2017-0.52.61.1
Jan 20183.72.83.2
Jan 20190.92.51.3
Jan 20201.42.31.3
Jan 2021-0.71.7-0.2
Feb 2021-0.61.5-0.5
Mar 2021-1.41.50.0
Apr 2021-0.41.61.5
May 2021-1.31.92.3
Jun 2021-0.62.12.8
Jul 2021-0.61.62.5
Aug 20210.33.03.3
Sep 20210.82.63.4
Oct 20211.23.24.9
Nov 20212.53.36.5
Dec 20214.23.46.9
Jan 20224.33.27.2
Feb 20225.13.58.3
Mar 20225.94.09.4
Apr 20226.74.712.4
May 20228.64.912.4
Jun 20229.85.212.7
Jul 202212.65.713.5
Aug 202213.15.912.9
Sep 202214.56.113.2
Oct 202216.26.314.8
Nov 202216.46.314.0
Dec 202216.86.813.4
Jan 202316.76.013.3
Feb 202318.06.613.4
Mar 202319.16.612.8
Apr 202319.06.910.0
May 202318.37.49.7
Jun 202317.37.28.5
Jul 202314.87.46.1
Aug 202313.66.86.3
Sep 202312.16.96.2
Oct 202310.16.62.9
Nov 20239.26.32.0
Dec 20238.06.41.9
Jan 20246.96.51.8
Feb 20245.06.11.1
Mar 20244.06.00.8
Apr 20242.95.9-0.8
May 20241.75.7-1.3
Jun 20241.55.7-1.4
Jul 20241.55.2-0.6
Aug 20241.35.6-0.9
Sep 20241.94.9-1.4
Oct 20241.95.0-0.3
Nov 20242.05.00.4
Dec 20242.04.40.7
Jan 20253.35.01.0
Feb 20253.35.00.8
Mar 20253.04.70.6
Apr 20253.45.41.7
May 20254.44.72.0
Jun 20254.54.72.4
Jul 20254.95.02.7
Aug 20255.14.72.8
Sep 20254.54.72.9
Oct 20254.94.52.6
Nov 20254.24.42.1
Dec 20254.54.52.2
Jan 20263.64.41.6
Feb 20263.34.31.6
Mar 20263.74.52.1
Apr 20263.03.22.4
May 20262.23.72.0
Jun 20261.73.61.7
Jul 20261.33.42.2
Aug 20261.33.42.7
Sep 20261.33.73.2

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

Energy prices over time

What happened to household energy prices?

Household energy prices rose 89.7% in a year at the peak; the rate is 7.8% now

United Kingdom · January 2000 to September 2026

1996–2026 · recorded figures. Shading marks years without figures: this series starts in 2000.

% change on a year earlier-50%0%50%100%2000201020207.8%No change on a year earlier

Energy prices have swung sharply, but bills remain above 2021 levels. Your bill also depends on how much you use and the daily standing charge.

United Kingdom · January 2000 to September 2026 · Official statistics

Show the workings — Household energy prices rose 89.7% in a year at the peak; the rate is 7.8% now

CPI 12-month rate for electricity, gas and other fuels (COICOP 04.5), UK, monthly, January 2000 to September 2026.

Energy prices move in steps as the Ofgem price cap changes, so the rate swings sharply. The 89.7% rise to October 2022 was followed by falls (as low as −27.2% in June 2024) — but a fall in the rate from such a high level still left bills well above 2021. What households pay depends on usage and standing charges too; see the energy pages.

Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
Per cent change over 12 months
Period:
January 2000 to September 2026
Status:
Official statistics
Calculation:
As published (series D7GT).
Compare with:
Zero: below the line, energy prices were lower than a year earlier
Not included / breaks:
Reflects the prices households actually paid, so it includes the Energy Price Guarantee from October 2022 but not one-off payments such as the £400 Energy Bills Support Scheme, which did not change the price of energy.

Source: ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), series D7GT (electricity, gas and other fuels) (released 21 October 2026).

View the data as a table
MonthElectricity, gas and other fuels (%)
Jan 20001.1
Jan 2001-1.4
Jan 20022.7
Jan 20031.5
Jan 20042.9
Jan 200513.8
Jan 200613.0
Jan 200729.2
Jan 2008-6.6
Jan 200936.2
Jan 2010-5.2
Jan 20111.4
Jan 201215.4
Jan 20134.5
Jan 20146.6
Jan 2015-2.0
Jan 2016-3.7
Jan 2017-0.8
Jan 20186.4
Jan 20191.4
Jan 20204.9
Jan 2021-8.4
Feb 2021-7.9
Mar 2021-7.3
Apr 20212.4
May 20212.6
Jun 20212.5
Jul 20212.6
Aug 20212.6
Sep 20212.8
Oct 202122.9
Nov 202123.2
Dec 202122.7
Jan 202222.9
Feb 202223.1
Mar 202224.8
Apr 202269.6
May 202269.9
Jun 202270.2
Jul 202270.3
Aug 202269.7
Sep 202270.1
Oct 202289.7
Nov 202289.0
Dec 202288.7
Jan 202389.5
Feb 202388.6
Mar 202385.6
Apr 202324.3
May 202323.7
Jun 202323.3
Jul 20234.5
Aug 20235.3
Sep 20235.0
Oct 2023-21.6
Nov 2023-21.6
Dec 2023-21.5
Jan 2024-18.3
Feb 2024-18.2
Mar 2024-18.2
Apr 2024-27.1
May 2024-27.1
Jun 2024-27.2
Jul 2024-20.1
Aug 2024-20.5
Sep 2024-20.7
Oct 2024-7.1
Nov 2024-7.0
Dec 2024-6.8
Jan 2025-9.9
Feb 2025-10.0
Mar 2025-10.1
Apr 20256.7
May 20256.7
Jun 20256.8
Jul 20259.2
Aug 20259.3
Sep 20259.4
Oct 20252.2
Nov 20252.6
Dec 20252.5
Jan 20262.1
Feb 20262.1
Mar 20265.0
Apr 2026-5.7
May 2026-6.2
Jun 2026-6.6
Jul 20265.0
Aug 20266.0
Sep 20267.8
Explore the costs behind food prices

Are the costs behind food prices building?

Mixed. Food in UK shops cost 1.3% more in August 2026 than a year earlier (ONS). Further back in the chain, UK farm costs were +6.4% and the prices farmers received −3.5% on a year earlier in July 2026 (Defra); world food commodity prices were +5.8% in September 2026 (FAO). These are measurements, not a forecast of shop prices.

A source behind this section is overdue or failed its latest check. The figures shown are the last ones verified, with their original dates.

Are the costs behind food prices building or easing?

Mixed: farm costs +6.4% and world food prices +5.8% on a year earlier, farm-gate prices −3.5%

Change on the same month a year earlier, %, for three separate measures: food prices in UK shops (ONS), prices paid and received by UK farmers (Defra), and international food commodity prices (FAO).

UK shops and UK farms; world commodity markets · January 2019 to September 2026; each line ends at its own latest month · Observed
% change on a year earlier0%50%20192020202120222023202420252026UK shops 1.3%Farm costs 6.4%Farm-gate -3.5%World 5.8%No change on a year earlier
Farm and commodity prices are only part of what food costs in a shop; wages, energy, packaging, transport and retailers’ margins are others. So these lines show whether pressure further back in the chain is building or easing, not how much shop prices will change or when. In July 2026 UK farm costs were 6.4% higher than a year earlier while the prices farmers received were 3.5% lower; world food commodity prices were 5.8% higher in September 2026.

UK shops and UK farms; world commodity markets · January 2019 to September 2026; each line ends at its own latest month · Observed; Defra released 24 September 2026; FAO 2 October 2026; ONS 16 September 2026

Show the workings — Mixed: farm costs +6.4% and world food prices +5.8% on a year earlier, farm-gate prices −3.5%
Geography:
UK shops and UK farms; world commodity markets
Measure:
% change on a year earlier
Period:
January 2019 to September 2026; each line ends at its own latest month
Status:
Observed; Defra released 24 September 2026; FAO 2 October 2026; ONS 16 September 2026
Calculation:
ONS rate as published (D7G8). Defra and FAO lines are site calculations: each monthly index divided by its value twelve months earlier (Defra 2020 = 100; FAO 2014–2016 = 100). Archive vintage 2026-10-02-51f636ca92e95549, file sha256:2511ecdc383c…
Compare with:
Food in UK shops: 1.3% in August 2026
Not included / breaks:
The measures have different baskets, geographies and base periods and are not added together or weighted into one score. They are observations, not forecasts of shop prices. FAO prices are nominal and in international markets; FAO revises recent months.

Source: Defra, Agricultural Price Index (2020 = 100), CSV time series; with ONS series D7G8 and the FAO Food Price Index (nominal, monthly) (released 24 September 2026).

View the data as a table
MonthUK shops (ONS) %UK farm costs (Defra) %UK farm-gate prices (Defra) %World food commodities (FAO) %
Sep 20265.8
Aug 20261.33.1
Jul 20261.36.4-3.51.5
Jun 20261.76.1-3.91.6
May 20262.27.6-5.23.1
Apr 20263.06.4-6.62.2
Mar 20263.73.8-5.31.2
Feb 20263.32.5-6.3-0.9
Jan 20263.62.3-1.3-0.4
Dec 20254.51.8-1.0-2.2
Nov 20254.22.12.5-2.0
Oct 20254.91.54.8-0.4
Sep 20254.52.14.83.2
Aug 20255.11.17.56.8
Jul 20254.90.41.07.4
Jun 20254.5-0.5-1.65.9
May 20254.4-0.80.15.5
Apr 20253.4-0.33.37.6
Mar 20253.0-1.24.77.0
Feb 20253.3-1.45.27.8
Jan 20253.3-2.24.66.0
Dec 20242.0-3.74.36.9
Nov 20242.0-4.13.85.9
Oct 20241.9-3.53.85.1
Sep 20241.9-4.84.42.4
Aug 20241.3-3.72.1-0.1
Jul 20241.5-3.14.9-2.8
Jun 20241.5-4.07.5-1.6
May 20241.7-5.45.4-3.2
Apr 20242.9-7.12.2-7.2
Mar 20244.0-9.2-1.1-7.1
Feb 20245.0-10.5-3.5-10.2
Jan 20246.9-11.5-3.7-10.5
Dec 20238.0-10.7-4.7-10.5
Nov 20239.2-11.1-4.9-11.3
Oct 202310.1-11.4-5.1-11.7
Sep 202312.1-12.4-5.2-11.4
Aug 202313.6-12.7-0.2-12.2
Jul 202314.8-13.0-0.7-12.1
Jun 202317.3-9.8-1.9-21.0
May 202318.3-7.7-1.0-21.6
Apr 202319.0-5.92.2-19.1
Mar 202319.15.97.9-20.1
Feb 202318.012.716.8-7.8
Jan 202316.714.717.9-3.2
Dec 202216.819.516.4-0.4
Nov 202216.421.018.80.4
Oct 202216.224.923.22.6
Sep 202214.531.523.66.4
Aug 202213.131.619.18.4
Jul 202212.633.620.613.8
Jun 20229.832.621.224.2
May 20228.633.021.023.6
Apr 20226.733.820.630.1
Mar 20225.925.116.834.5
Feb 20225.120.111.821.6
Jan 20224.321.110.619.6
Dec 20214.218.714.923.2
Nov 20212.518.914.028.3
Oct 20211.215.68.231.6
Sep 20210.813.68.431.9
Aug 20210.314.011.533.8
Jul 2021-0.613.38.432.6
Jun 2021-0.613.08.934.7
May 2021-1.311.311.240.8
Apr 2021-0.49.510.232.1
Mar 2021-1.48.78.625.1
Feb 2021-0.68.48.417.0
Jan 2021-0.76.88.210.7
Dec 2020-1.44.26.47.6
Nov 2020-0.63.36.77.4
Oct 20200.62.69.66.6
Sep 2020-0.11.08.85.0
Aug 20200.4-0.44.82.0
Jul 20200.8-1.04.4-1.4
Jun 20201.1-2.72.2-2.4
May 20201.8-2.32.5-3.2
Apr 20201.3-1.50.8-1.2
Mar 20201.3-2.42.22.4
Feb 20201.2-2.6-0.26.2
Jan 20201.4-2.6-1.410.1
Dec 20191.7-3.4-4.99.6
Nov 20192.1-3.4-6.66.9
Oct 20191.3-3.2-8.11.9
Sep 20191.8-1.7-9.8-0.9
Aug 20191.8-0.5-7.0-2.1
Jul 20191.40.7-2.60.1
Jun 20191.63.10.0-1.4
May 20191.04.2-1.9-4.4
Apr 20190.75.00.8-5.0
Mar 20190.85.80.3-5.9
Feb 20191.16.0-1.0-4.1
Jan 20190.96.72.1-3.7

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

How these measures are collected and tracked →

Inside the farm-cost figure (July 2026, on a year earlier): energy and lubricants +13.8%, fertilisers and soil improvers +13.1%, animal feed +3.8%. Inside the world index (September 2026): meat 0.0%, dairy −19.1%, cereal +17.2%, vegetable oil +18.3%, sugar +14.7%.

How “mixed” is decided. If farm costs, farm-gate prices and the world index are all more than 1% above their level a year earlier, pressure is described as building; all more than 1% below, easing; anything else, mixed. It is a description of three published indices. It is not a score, and no size or timing of any effect on shop prices is estimated.

Independent forecasts. IGD published food-inflation forecast ranges on 17 September 2026. UK Facts does not have permission to republish them, so none appears here.

Source: FAO Food Price Index. © FAO. FAO has not endorsed this use. Farm indices: Defra, Agricultural Price Index, Open Government Licence.

Household costs outlook: energy, food, pay and borrowing together →

How the inflation basket is built, and CPI, CPIH, RPI and HCI compared

  1. Step 1

    Choose the items

    In 2026 the basket has 760 items, from bread to car insurance. 27 were added this year (such as houmous and dashboard cameras) and 19 removed.

  2. Step 2

    Collect the prices

    Price collectors and online and shop data record prices for the same items every month, across the UK.

  3. Step 3

    Weight them

    Each item counts by how much households spend on it in total. The 2026 weights put recreation and culture (15%) and transport, including fuel (14%) at the top.

  4. Step 4

    Update every year

    Items and weights change each February, so the basket follows what people actually buy.

Four measures, four questions

CPI
The headline rate and the Bank of England’s 2% target. Prices of the basket, weighted by how much is spent on each thing in total. Leaves out the cost of owning a home.
CPIH
CPI plus the cost of living in a home you own, estimated from what it would cost to rent it. ONS’s lead measure.
RPI
The older measure, still used for rail fares, student loan interest and some bonds. ONS says it is not a good measure and it usually runs higher than CPI because of how it averages prices.
Household Costs Indices
Count every household equally rather than by spending, and include mortgage interest and Council Tax. Published for groups such as renters, retired people and income fifths.

Because spending is counted in pounds, CPI leans towards the spending of better-off households. That is why someone’s own rate can differ: try the calculator below.

Sources: ONS, basket of goods and services: 2026 (16 March 2026); updating weights: 2026; CPIH, CPI and RPI quality and method; Household Costs Indices.

Why it is happening

Interest rates, wages and energy links

Energy and import prices started the surge: gas prices rose sharply in 2021–22 and passed through to household bills, then to food and other goods. What households pay for energy.

Wages followed with a lag. Real pay fell while inflation was high and is growing again (+0.7% on a year earlier in Jun–Aug 2026); average real pay in 2025 was 23.7% above 2000, but only 4.6% above its 2007 pre-crash level. Pay growth matters to inflation mainly through services prices, which are labour-intensive. What happened to pay.

Interest rates are the Bank of England’s tool. They work by slowing demand, over a year or more; they cannot make gas or wheat cheaper.

How did the Bank of England respond?

Bank Rate rose from 0.10% to 5.25%; it is 3.75% now

United Kingdom · January 2000 to September 2026

1996–2026 · recorded figures. Shading marks years without figures: this series starts in 2000.

Bank Rate, % a year0%2%4%6%8%2000201020203.75%

Higher interest rates can slow price rises, but they also raise borrowing costs and can reduce jobs and spending. They cannot directly bring down world food or energy prices.

United Kingdom · January 2000 to September 2026 · Official data

Show the workings — Bank Rate rose from 0.10% to 5.25%; it is 3.75% now

Monthly average of the Bank of England's official Bank Rate, per cent a year, January 2000 to September 2026.

The Monetary Policy Committee raised Bank Rate fourteen times from December 2021 to August 2023 and has since cut it. Higher rates work slowly: in estimates summarised in a 2024 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin article, a one-point surprise rise has historically lowered the price level by about 0.3% at its peak effect, after about a year, while reducing output. Rates cannot lower energy or food prices set on world markets; they work by cooling demand, which is why they also cost jobs and raise mortgage bills.

Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
Per cent a year
Period:
January 2000 to September 2026
Status:
Official data
Calculation:
As published (monthly average; months in which the rate changed show a value between the old and new rates).
Compare with:
0.10% in June 2020

Source: Bank of England Database, Bank Rate (monthly average), series IUMABEDR.

View the data as a table
MonthBank Rate (%)
Jan 20005.66
Feb 20005.92
Mar 20006.00
Apr 20006.00
May 20006.00
Jun 20006.00
Jul 20006.00
Aug 20006.00
Sep 20006.00
Oct 20006.00
Nov 20006.00
Dec 20006.00
Jan 20016.00
Feb 20015.81
Mar 20015.75
Apr 20015.54
May 20015.32
Jun 20015.25
Jul 20015.25
Aug 20015.01
Sep 20014.89
Oct 20014.53
Nov 20014.11
Dec 20014.00
Jan 20024.00
Feb 20024.00
Mar 20024.00
Apr 20024.00
May 20024.00
Jun 20024.00
Jul 20024.00
Aug 20024.00
Sep 20024.00
Oct 20024.00
Nov 20024.00
Dec 20024.00
Jan 20034.00
Feb 20033.79
Mar 20033.75
Apr 20033.75
May 20033.75
Jun 20033.75
Jul 20033.58
Aug 20033.50
Sep 20033.50
Oct 20033.50
Nov 20033.71
Dec 20033.75
Jan 20043.75
Feb 20043.96
Mar 20044.00
Apr 20044.00
May 20044.22
Jun 20044.42
Jul 20044.50
Aug 20044.71
Sep 20044.75
Oct 20044.75
Nov 20044.75
Dec 20044.75
Jan 20054.75
Feb 20054.75
Mar 20054.75
Apr 20054.75
May 20054.75
Jun 20054.75
Jul 20054.75
Aug 20054.53
Sep 20054.50
Oct 20054.50
Nov 20054.50
Dec 20054.50
Jan 20064.50
Feb 20064.50
Mar 20064.50
Apr 20064.50
May 20064.50
Jun 20064.50
Jul 20064.50
Aug 20064.73
Sep 20064.75
Oct 20064.75
Nov 20064.93
Dec 20065.00
Jan 20075.17
Feb 20075.25
Mar 20075.25
Apr 20075.25
May 20075.43
Jun 20075.50
Jul 20075.72
Aug 20075.75
Sep 20075.75
Oct 20075.75
Nov 20075.75
Dec 20075.54
Jan 20085.50
Feb 20085.30
Mar 20085.25
Apr 20085.08
May 20085.00
Jun 20085.00
Jul 20085.00
Aug 20085.00
Sep 20085.00
Oct 20084.61
Nov 20083.23
Dec 20082.14
Jan 20091.60
Feb 20091.07
Mar 20090.57
Apr 20090.50
May 20090.50
Jun 20090.50
Jul 20090.50
Aug 20090.50
Sep 20090.50
Oct 20090.50
Nov 20090.50
Dec 20090.50
Jan 20100.50
Feb 20100.50
Mar 20100.50
Apr 20100.50
May 20100.50
Jun 20100.50
Jul 20100.50
Aug 20100.50
Sep 20100.50
Oct 20100.50
Nov 20100.50
Dec 20100.50
Jan 20110.50
Feb 20110.50
Mar 20110.50
Apr 20110.50
May 20110.50
Jun 20110.50
Jul 20110.50
Aug 20110.50
Sep 20110.50
Oct 20110.50
Nov 20110.50
Dec 20110.50
Jan 20120.50
Feb 20120.50
Mar 20120.50
Apr 20120.50
May 20120.50
Jun 20120.50
Jul 20120.50
Aug 20120.50
Sep 20120.50
Oct 20120.50
Nov 20120.50
Dec 20120.50
Jan 20130.50
Feb 20130.50
Mar 20130.50
Apr 20130.50
May 20130.50
Jun 20130.50
Jul 20130.50
Aug 20130.50
Sep 20130.50
Oct 20130.50
Nov 20130.50
Dec 20130.50
Jan 20140.50
Feb 20140.50
Mar 20140.50
Apr 20140.50
May 20140.50
Jun 20140.50
Jul 20140.50
Aug 20140.50
Sep 20140.50
Oct 20140.50
Nov 20140.50
Dec 20140.50
Jan 20150.50
Feb 20150.50
Mar 20150.50
Apr 20150.50
May 20150.50
Jun 20150.50
Jul 20150.50
Aug 20150.50
Sep 20150.50
Oct 20150.50
Nov 20150.50
Dec 20150.50
Jan 20160.50
Feb 20160.50
Mar 20160.50
Apr 20160.50
May 20160.50
Jun 20160.50
Jul 20160.50
Aug 20160.28
Sep 20160.25
Oct 20160.25
Nov 20160.25
Dec 20160.25
Jan 20170.25
Feb 20170.25
Mar 20170.25
Apr 20170.25
May 20170.25
Jun 20170.25
Jul 20170.25
Aug 20170.25
Sep 20170.25
Oct 20170.25
Nov 20170.49
Dec 20170.50
Jan 20180.50
Feb 20180.50
Mar 20180.50
Apr 20180.50
May 20180.50
Jun 20180.50
Jul 20180.50
Aug 20180.74
Sep 20180.75
Oct 20180.75
Nov 20180.75
Dec 20180.75
Jan 20190.75
Feb 20190.75
Mar 20190.75
Apr 20190.75
May 20190.75
Jun 20190.75
Jul 20190.75
Aug 20190.75
Sep 20190.75
Oct 20190.75
Nov 20190.75
Dec 20190.75
Jan 20200.75
Feb 20200.75
Mar 20200.35
Apr 20200.10
May 20200.10
Jun 20200.10
Jul 20200.10
Aug 20200.10
Sep 20200.10
Oct 20200.10
Nov 20200.10
Dec 20200.10
Jan 20210.10
Feb 20210.10
Mar 20210.10
Apr 20210.10
May 20210.10
Jun 20210.10
Jul 20210.10
Aug 20210.10
Sep 20210.10
Oct 20210.10
Nov 20210.10
Dec 20210.17
Jan 20220.25
Feb 20220.47
Mar 20220.62
Apr 20220.75
May 20220.98
Jun 20221.14
Jul 20221.25
Aug 20221.68
Sep 20221.92
Oct 20222.25
Nov 20222.93
Dec 20223.25
Jan 20233.50
Feb 20233.98
Mar 20234.08
Apr 20234.25
May 20234.42
Jun 20234.66
Jul 20235.00
Aug 20235.23
Sep 20235.25
Oct 20235.25
Nov 20235.25
Dec 20235.25
Jan 20245.25
Feb 20245.25
Mar 20245.25
Apr 20245.25
May 20245.25
Jun 20245.25
Jul 20245.25
Aug 20245.00
Sep 20245.00
Oct 20245.00
Nov 20244.80
Dec 20244.75
Jan 20254.75
Feb 20254.54
Mar 20254.50
Apr 20254.50
May 20254.30
Jun 20254.25
Jul 20254.25
Aug 20254.05
Sep 20254.00
Oct 20254.00
Nov 20254.00
Dec 20253.90
Jan 20263.75
Feb 20263.75
Mar 20263.75
Apr 20263.75
May 20263.75
Jun 20263.75
Jul 20263.75
Aug 20263.75
Sep 20263.75

Who is affected most

Why households experience different inflation

CPI is the inflation of the average pound spent, so it leans towards the spending of better-off households. ONS’s Household Costs Indices instead count every household equally and include mortgage interest, which CPI leaves out. They show who was hit, and when.

Did everyone face the same inflation?

At the peak, the lowest-income tenth faced 14.5% inflation; the highest-income tenth 11.3%

United Kingdom · October 2022 and June 2026
October 2022June 2026CPI peak 11.1%
  • Lowest-income tenth14.5%
  • 2nd tenth13.6%
  • 3rd tenth13.2%
  • 4th tenth13.1%
  • 5th tenth12.7%
  • 6th tenth12.5%
  • 7th tenth12.0%
  • 8th tenth11.9%
  • 9th tenth11.6%
  • Highest-income tenth11.3%

Poorer households were hit first and hardest because food and energy took more of their budgets. The gap later narrowed as mortgage costs rose.

United Kingdom · October 2022 and June 2026 · Official statistics in development — may be revised

Show the workings — At the peak, the lowest-income tenth faced 14.5% inflation; the highest-income tenth 11.3%

Household Costs Index 12-month rate by tenth of household income, UK: October 2022 (filled dot) and June 2026 (open dot).

Poorer households spend more of their budget on energy and food, the prices that rose fastest in 2022, so their inflation peaked highest: 14.5% for the lowest-income tenth in October 2022 against 11.3% for the highest. The gap then closed as mortgage interest costs, which weigh more on higher-income households, rose. By June 2026 rates were within 0.2 points across all ten groups.

Geography:
United Kingdom — Private households, grouped into tenths by equivalised disposable income
Measure:
Per cent change over 12 months
Period:
October 2022 and June 2026
Status:
Official statistics in development — may be revised
Calculation:
As published (Table 3, all items).
Compare with:
CPI peak, 11.1%
Not included / breaks:
The Household Costs Indices weight every household equally and include mortgage interest; CPI weights by spending and excludes it. The two are not directly comparable.

Source: ONS, Household Costs Indices for UK household groups: April to June 2026, reference tables 1–4 (released 28 August 2026).

View the data as a table
Income groupOct 2022 (%)Jun 2026 (%)Rise in costs since Jan 2021 (%)
Lowest-income tenth14.52.736.7
2nd tenth13.62.735.7
3rd tenth13.22.735.5
4th tenth13.12.835.6
5th tenth12.72.835.4
6th tenth12.52.835.4
7th tenth12.02.835.4
8th tenth11.92.935.9
9th tenth11.62.835.9
Highest-income tenth11.32.837.1

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

Over the whole episode, whose costs rose most?

Since January 2021, household costs rose by between 35.4% and 37.1% across income groups

United Kingdom · January 2021 to June 2026
January 2021 to June 2026
  • Lowest-income tenth36.7%
  • 2nd tenth35.7%
  • 3rd tenth35.5%
  • 4th tenth35.6%
  • 5th tenth35.4%
  • 6th tenth35.4%
  • 7th tenth35.4%
  • 8th tenth35.9%
  • 9th tenth35.9%
  • Highest-income tenth37.1%

Similar percentage increases do not mean equal hardship. Households on low incomes have less room to absorb higher bills, while mortgage borrowers were hit later by interest costs.

United Kingdom · January 2021 to June 2026 · Official statistics in development — site calculation

Show the workings — Since January 2021, household costs rose by between 35.4% and 37.1% across income groups

Cumulative change in the Household Costs Index by tenth of household income, UK, January 2021 to June 2026.

Measured from January 2021, the lowest-income tenth's costs rose 36.7% and the highest-income tenth's 37.1% — similar, because poorer households were hit first (energy, food) and richer ones later (mortgage interest). By tenure since January 2022, mortgagors' costs rose most (31.5%), outright owners' least (26.1%). The hardship is not equal even where the percentage is: low-income households had less room to absorb it.

Geography:
United Kingdom — Private households, grouped into tenths by equivalised disposable income
Measure:
Per cent change in the index
Period:
January 2021 to June 2026
Status:
Official statistics in development — site calculation
Calculation:
Site calculation: each decile's index (Table 4) in June 2026 divided by its January 2021 value.
Compare with:
CPI over a similar period (January 2021 to September 2026): +32.2%
Not included / breaks:
A cost index is not a measure of hardship: the same percentage rise takes a larger share of a small budget, and income changes are not netted off.

Source: ONS, Household Costs Indices for UK household groups: April to June 2026, reference tables 1–4 (released 28 August 2026).

View the data as a table
Income groupRise since Jan 2021 (%)
Lowest-income tenth36.7
2nd tenth35.7
3rd tenth35.5
4th tenth35.6
5th tenth35.4
6th tenth35.4
7th tenth35.4
8th tenth35.9
9th tenth35.9
Highest-income tenth37.1

A source behind this section is overdue or failed its latest check. The figures shown are the last ones verified, with their original dates.

Which households’ costs are rising fastest now?

In the year to June 2026, costs rose 3.0% for private renters and 2.5% for retired households

Household Costs Indices, all items, by the household groups ONS publishes. Choose a grouping and a measure; each grouping is a separate breakdown of all UK households.

UK · June 2026; change since January 2022 · Observed

Observed, in the year to June 2026. Highest: private renters, 3.0%. Lowest: outright owners, 2.6%. All households: 2.8%.

Year to June 2026All households 2.8%
  • Mortgagors and other owner-occupiers2.8%
  • Outright owners2.6%
  • Private renters3.0%
  • Social and other renters2.7%

ONS groups mortgagors with other owner-occupiers who are not outright owners, and social renters with other renters. These are measured groups, not forecasts; ONS labels them official statistics in development.

The Household Costs Indices count every household equally and include mortgage interest, which CPI leaves out, so they show how the same price changes land on different households. The gaps are small at present: 3.0% for private renters against 2.5% for retired households. Over a longer period they are larger — since January 2022, costs have risen most for mortgagors and other owner-occupiers. A group’s rate is an average; households within it differ.

UK · June 2026; change since January 2022 · Observed; official statistics in development (ONS); latest values provisional

Official statistics in development: ONS advises caution and may revise them. June 2026 is provisional. The 2026 weights are carried forward from 2025.

Show the workings — In the year to June 2026, costs rose 3.0% for private renters and 2.5% for retired households
Geography:
UK — private households, in the groups ONS publishes
Measure:
12-month rate, %; and rise in costs since January 2022, % (site calculation from the index, 2015 = 100)
Period:
June 2026; change since January 2022
Status:
Observed; official statistics in development (ONS); latest values provisional
Calculation:
Rates and indices as published (Tables 1 and 2). The rise since January 2022 is each group’s June 2026 index divided by its January 2022 index. Archive vintage 2026-08-28-1b791787da554ad2, file sha256:683b984d4a77…
Compare with:
All households: 2.8% in the year to June 2026
Uncertainty:
Official statistics in development: ONS advises caution and may revise them. June 2026 is provisional. The 2026 weights are carried forward from 2025.
Not included / breaks:
Measured experience of published groups, not a forecast and not any one household’s budget. Income, tenure, retirement and children are separate breakdowns: ONS publishes no figure for a combination such as low-income private renters with children, and none is estimated here. No income amount is attached to a decile.

Source: ONS, Household Costs Indices for UK household groups, reference tables, Tables 1 and 2 (released 28 August 2026).

View the data as a table
GroupingHousehold group12-month rate, Jun 2026 (%)Index, Jun 2026 (2015 = 100)Rise since January 2022 (%)
All householdsAll households2.8147.528.4
Income (tenths of households)Lowest-income tenth2.7148.229.2
Income (tenths of households)2nd tenth2.7146.828.2
Income (tenths of households)3rd tenth2.7146.527.9
Income (tenths of households)4th tenth2.8147.128.2
Income (tenths of households)5th tenth2.8147.027.8
Income (tenths of households)6th tenth2.8146.928.0
Income (tenths of households)7th tenth2.8147.027.6
Income (tenths of households)8th tenth2.9147.528.1
Income (tenths of households)9th tenth2.8147.428.0
Income (tenths of households)Highest-income tenth2.8149.229.0
Housing tenureMortgagors and other owner-occupiers2.8150.831.5
Housing tenureOutright owners2.6146.826.1
Housing tenurePrivate renters3.0144.926.8
Housing tenureSocial and other renters2.7145.728.8
Retired or notRetired households2.5147.227.1
Retired or notNon-retired households2.9147.528.7
With or without childrenHouseholds with children2.8146.628.5
With or without childrenHouseholds without children2.8147.928.3

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

What this means for a household like yours →

What is your inflation rate?

Open the calculator: set your own spending and see your rate

Move the sliders to match how you spend. Bigger shares on fast-rising areas give you a higher rate than the official one. Other ways to measure the cost of living.

How do you split your spending? (% of what you spend)

Starts at the average household’s split. Leave out rent and mortgage payments: CPI does not count them.

Your shares add to 99%. We scale them to 100%.

Your estimated inflation rate

3.5%

Prices for your mix rose 3.5% in the year to September 2026. Official CPI: 3.5%. About the same.

Biggest pushes on your rate

  • Transport, including fuel: 0.93 points
  • Housing, water, energy: 0.70 points
  • Eating out and hotels: 0.54 points

An estimate. It uses the average price rise in each of 12 spending areas, not the exact things you buy, and the average household’s mix inside each area.

How this is worked out

Your rate = each area’s share of your spending × the ONS 12-month price change for that area, added up. Price changes are for September 2026; average shares are the CPI weights for 2026. With the average shares the sum is close to, but not exactly, the headline CPI, because ONS combines prices at a finer level.

Source: ONS consumer price inflation (MM23), released 2026-10-21, retrieved 2026-10-29. ONS also publishes its own shopping prices comparison tool for single items.

What could change

Proposals to consider. The bodies named below would need to agree to deliver them; responsibility is not a recorded commitment. Follow the links for costs and evidence.

  • Connect the power Britain needs

    Improve electricity connections and power supply for industry.

    Who could deliver it: Energy departments, system/network operators and regulators.

    Main trade-off and delivery needs

    Binding specialist/kit constraints; moving charges to households; stranded assets.

    Separate queue management, network reinforcement and industrial levies; identify projects, kit, engineers and regulator decisions.

    Cost: The extra cost is not yet known.

    Costs, drawbacks and evidence →

  • Warm homes, inspected before payment

    Improve insulation, heating and ventilation for households most in need. Survey homes first and check the finished work.

    Who could deliver it: Energy/housing departments, councils and installers.

    Main trade-off and delivery needs

    Damp, overheating, defects and installer constraints; inspection is not a guarantee.

    Target poor-quality homes; survey suitability/ventilation; use qualified installers and independent inspection; establish redress.

    Cost: Only part of the cost has been estimated.

    Costs, drawbacks and evidence →

  • A child-poverty target and essentials test

    Set a child-poverty target and test whether families can afford essentials.

    Who could deliver it: Treasury, the Department for Work and Pensions and relevant service departments/devolved governments.

    Main trade-off and delivery needs

    Unfunded targets; narrow metrics; inadequate treatment of disability and housing costs.

    Define poverty/essentials measures, then compare specific benefit, housing-cost and service changes; assign accountability.

    Cost: The extra cost is not yet known.

    Costs, drawbacks and evidence →

See all options and what is still unknown →

Some problems have no assessed solution yet: see coverage and gaps.

Domain SWOT

Recorded

Show the findings
Strengths · 1 finding

  • An explicit benchmark: the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee sets interest rates independently to meet a 2% CPI inflation target set by the Chancellor.

    United Kingdom · Latest remit, 26 November 2025

Weaknesses · 3 findings

  • The NAO finds that utility regulators have improved consumer protections, but debt, low social-tariff take-up and communication barriers persist for vulnerable consumers. Without clearer outcome measures, regulatory activity can be mistaken for improved affordability or service.

    Ofwat (England and Wales), Ofgem (Great Britain), Ofcom (United Kingdom) · NAO report, 10 June 2026

  • CPI inflation was 3.5% in September 2026, above the 2% target — and the price level is 32.2% higher than in January 2021. Lower inflation slows further rises; it does not bring prices back down.

    United Kingdom · January 2021 to September 2026

  • At the October 2022 peak, households in the second-lowest income tenth faced 13.6% annual inflation on ONS’s Household Costs Indices, against 11.6% in the second-highest tenth.

    United Kingdom · October 2022 (peak month)

Opportunities · 1 finding

  • Help with what households pay can be separated from the job of hitting the target: lower policy costs on electricity and a transparent test of whether benefits cover essentials act on bills and incomes without asking interest rates to do it.

    Depends on: Support is aimed at households who cannot absorb higher prices, its cost is funded explicitly, and levy changes protect households who cannot switch their heating.

    our synthesis

Threats · 1 finding

  • Energy shocks can push inflation up again. In September 2026 the MPC judged inflation risks tilted upwards while finding little evidence yet of material second-round effects in wages and prices. It held Bank Rate at 3.75%; its outlook is conditional, not an observed future outcome.

    United Kingdom · MPC assessment, 17 September 2026 · risk

See the whole-UK SWOT →

Domain action plan

Proposed

Possible steps for government and the bodies responsible. These describe the order of work, not promised dates: starting an action and seeing results take different amounts of time.

  1. Short term · prepare

    Identify which prices and household costs are driving pressure.

  2. Medium term · deliver

    Assess the linked energy, housing and supply proposals.

  3. Long term · judge results

    Check household buying power; a lower inflation rate does not reverse past rises.

Delivery steps and owners (4)
  1. Prerequisite: Re-model moving remaining levies off electricity on post-April 2026 tariffs, by heating type and income · DESNZ with Ofgem · proposed
  2. Prerequisite: Specify the essentials basket, household types and options to cost · DWP with HM Treasury · proposed
  3. Decision: Decide the Renewables Obligation arrangement after 2028–29 and any adequacy body’s remit · HM Treasury, DESNZ and DWP; Parliament where law is needed · proposed
  4. Result: Inflation at the 2% target; lower-income households’ cost pressures and fuel poverty falling · Bank of England (target); ONS and DESNZ statistics · proposed

Sources, method and changes

Shareable visual summary

Visual summary

A £100 basket in January 2021 now costs £132. Lower inflation would slow that rise, not reverse it.

£100 of the overall CPI basket in January 2021 cost £132.20 in September 2026: prices rose 32.2%. Separately, annual CPI inflation was 3.5% in September 2026 (+0.4pp on August 2026), above the 2% target. The whole basket, not any one household’s spending.

  • £132.20cost in September 2026 of £100 of the CPI basket in January 2021
  • 32.2%rise in the CPI price level since January 2021

The ratio of two CPI index values (D7BT), not annual rates added together.

Annual CPI rate (same 0–4% scale)

  • Aug 20263.1%
  • Sep 20263.5%

What a year of 3.5% inflation does to £100

3.5%annual CPI rate=£103.50cost of a £100 basket a year later

Text and data version

A £100 basket in January 2021 now costs £132. Lower inflation would slow that rise, not reverse it. £100 of the overall CPI basket in January 2021 cost £132.20 in September 2026: prices rose 32.2%. Separately, annual CPI inflation was 3.5% in September 2026 (+0.4pp on August 2026), above the 2% target. The whole basket, not any one household’s spending.

Records behind this visual summary
MeasureValuePeriodGeographyTypeSource
Cost now of £100 of the overall CPI basket in January 2021Calculation: £100 × latest CPI index ÷ January 2021 CPI index£132.20Sep 2026United Kingdomderived calculationOffice for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation
Rise in the CPI price level since January 2021Calculation: (latest CPI index ÷ January 2021 CPI index − 1) × 10032.2%Sep 2026United Kingdomderived calculationOffice for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation
CPI annual rate, latest month3.5%Sep 2026United Kingdomobserved countOffice for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation
CPI annual rate, previous month3.1%Aug 2026United Kingdomobserved countOffice for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation
Illustrative £100 basket one year laterCalculation: £100 × (1 + annual CPI rate ÷ 100)£103.50Sep 2026United Kingdomderived calculationOffice for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation

Available images and their source records are listed on Shareable visuals.

Sources and methods (11)

Method notes

  • CPI is used throughout this page, for the headline, the chart and the £100 example. CPIH, ONS’s lead measure, adds owner-occupiers’ housing costs and council tax; it was 3.6% in the year to September 2026 (ONS series L55O, released 21 October 2026). ONS deflates its real-pay figures by CPIH, so pay comparisons elsewhere on this site use that measure.
  • Cumulative price changes are calculated from the CPI index (D7BT), never by adding or subtracting annual rates.
  • The Household Costs Indices are official statistics in development and are published quarterly, so they lag CPI by a quarter.

Corrections and changes

  • 2026-10-11: Removed a falling-rate chapter heading while the latest monthly comparison rises. The linked Scale Check now compares monthly 12-month CPI rates, rather than mixing an annual average with a monthly rate.