A63Delivery risk: RedGate: pending
A tax on the very top fortunes: three designs
Proposed new action A63; sourced research home and appraisal design; scope and funding remain provisional.
Provisional single-reviewer assessment; not an approved business case.
- Who and where
- Population not yet defined. Jurisdiction: not defined.
- Result so far
- Range if completed: 9.0–18.0 out of 30 (equal weights; not yet assessed: increment beyond baseline (Ad), expected incremental benefit (Bn), incremental affordability (Co))
- Funded now (baseline)
- Funded baseline not yet stated
- The change assessed (marginal)
- Marginal change not yet defined
- Domain home: Tax options
- In the national plan: Kept outside the national lists
What the evidence supports—and the next decision
One-off wealth taxation, annual taxation and narrower asset-based reforms cannot share one revenue or feasibility estimate.
AI-assisted analytical follow-up · 8 October 2026. Proposed appraisal design; the attributed scores below are unchanged. No funding or delivery agreement is implied.
- Define the change
- Keep three explicitly defined designs with separate thresholds, bases, residence rules and valuation dates.
- Test whether it works
- Net receipts, avoidance and migration scenarios, compliance and distribution. A migration count alone does not identify a tax effect.
- Establish the cost
- Valuation, enforcement, administration and liquidity arrangements; allow for responses and existing taxes on the same assets.
- Protect against harm
- Specify appeals, instalments and treatment of illiquid businesses and pensions; do not book an illustrative yield as funding.
Read with the outcome evidence and sources in the full assessment. Monitoring proposals are not existing baseline measurements. A numerical benefit or cost score needs evidence for the defined increment, not just the scale of the problem.
Full assessment of A tax on the very top fortunes: three designs: ten criteria, scenarios, delivery, costs and monitoring
The ten criteria (0–3)
Each criterion is scored 0 to 3 by the reviewer. “Not yet assessed” means unknown: it is never counted as zero.
Scale and severity (Sc)2 of 3 — Serious harm to a defined group or widespread moderate harm
Reviewer’s reason: Provisional problem-importance judgement from linked site pages; not the scale of achievable benefit.
Increment beyond baseline (Ad)Not yet assessed
Reviewer’s reason: Separate annual wealth tax, minimum effective tax and one-off levy; define base, residence, valuation and anti-avoidance. A missing rating requires a defined marginal change.
Confidence in the proposed action (Ev)1 of 3 — Indirect, mixed, modelled or weak causal support
Reviewer’s reason: Revenue estimates differ by design and assumptions; artifact labels a prominent yield unverified. No agreed package is costed.
Expected incremental benefit (Bn)Not yet assessed
Reviewer’s reason: Unknown unless a reasonably defined target-population benefit can be judged; no bonus merely for spanning domains.
Residual harms (Hm)1 of 3 — Material harm/unresolved mitigation
Reviewer’s reason: Valuation/staff constraints; emigration, avoidance, liquidity and legal risk.
Incremental affordability (Co)Not yet assessed
Reviewer’s reason: Valuation, enforcement, liquidity arrangements, net revenue and behavioural scenarios for each design.
Delivery capacity (Ca)1 of 3 — Binding scarce resource
Reviewer’s reason: Separate annual wealth tax, minimum effective tax and one-off levy; define base, residence, valuation and anti-avoidance.
Distribution (Fa)2 of 3 — Mixed or broadly neutral with safeguards
Reviewer’s reason: Provisional distribution judgement for the stated target; verify who pays, who gains and excluded groups.
Meaningful first outcome (Ti)1 of 3 — More than three but less than ten years
Reviewer’s reason: First meaningful outcome, not announcement: Net receipts, effective burdens and avoidance; spending outcomes separately.
Readiness (Rd)1 of 3 — Legislation/external agreement or major enabling work
Reviewer’s reason: Treasury, HMRC and Parliament; Separate three design appraisals
Four weightings
Normalised as 10 × weighted sum ÷ sum of weights, on a 0–30 scale. Where a criterion is not yet assessed, the range is the lowest and highest result if it were later scored 0 or 3 — not a score, a confidence interval or a rank.
- Equal weights: Range if completed: 9.0–18.0 out of 30. Not yet assessed: increment beyond baseline (Ad), expected incremental benefit (Bn), incremental affordability (Co). Funding gate: not passed.
- Evidence doubled: Range if completed: 9.1–17.3 out of 30. Not yet assessed: increment beyond baseline (Ad), expected incremental benefit (Bn), incremental affordability (Co). Funding gate: not passed.
- Scale doubled: Range if completed: 10.0–18.2 out of 30. Not yet assessed: increment beyond baseline (Ad), expected incremental benefit (Bn), incremental affordability (Co). Funding gate: not passed.
- Cost ignored (the funding gate still applies): Range if completed: 10.0–16.7 out of 30. Not yet assessed: increment beyond baseline (Ad), expected incremental benefit (Bn), incremental affordability (Co). Funding gate: not passed.
Funding gate: Not passed — the cost is not yet assessed or no allocation is committed for this scope. Ignoring cost in a weighting never removes the gate.
Delivery risk and gate
Delivery risk shown: RedReview’s claim: Red. Best the recorded evidence allows: Red.
Review’s reason: Valuation/staff constraints; emigration, avoidance, liquidity and legal risk.
Why it is not Green yet
- Delivery obstacle: Valuation/staff constraints; emigration, avoidance, liquidity and legal risk..
- Scope (population, place and increment) not verified against the delivery baseline.
- No verified owner with the powers in place.
- Delivery capacity not verified.
- Lifetime incremental costs not complete.
- No credible funding (a committed allocation for the scope).
- Safeguards not specified.
- Monitoring lacks a metric, a data source or a baseline.
Green needs verified scope, a verified owner with the powers, verified capacity, complete lifetime costs with credible funding, specified safeguards and monitoring with a metric, source and baseline. Amber means appraisal gaps remain; Red means a material delivery obstacle. Red does not mean unimportant.
Gate: Pending — appraisal incomplete (review label: “Pending: incomplete appraisal”).
Why: Scores incomplete; Funding gate not passed (cost unknown or no credible funding).
The gate is separate from national list membership: being listed does not make an option eligible, and an eligible option need not be listed.
Cost and funding
Lifetime costing: Not established. Review: “Full incremental costing not established in reviewed material”.
Still to cost: Valuation, enforcement, liquidity arrangements, net revenue and behavioural scenarios for each design.
Funding status: not established in review.
Owner, powers and capacity
Proposed owner: Treasury, HMRC and Parliament (proposed, unverified).
Powers: needs legislation or external agreement. Capacity: binding constraint.
Powers and capacity read from the review’s Rd and Ca anchors; no proposed owner has agreed to act (the review: “Proposed owners have not agreed to act”).
- England:
- not assessed
- Scotland:
- not assessed
- Wales:
- not assessed
- Northern Ireland:
- not assessed
Not defined in the review.
Dependencies, safeguards and risks
Depends on: None recorded.
Safeguards
None specified yet.
Risks and residual harms: Valuation/staff constraints; emigration, avoidance, liquidity and legal risk.
Monitoring and measured results
Metric: Net receipts, effective burdens and avoidance; spending outcomes separately.
Data source: Not yet named. Baseline: Not yet established.
Evidence for the outcome
Outcome: Net receipts, effective burdens and avoidance; spending outcomes separately.
Revenue estimates differ by design and assumptions; artifact labels a prominent yield unverified. No agreed package is costed.
SWOT points it addresses
- Reliefs narrow the capital taxes: business asset disposal relief cost about £1.0bn in 2023–24 and agricultural and business property relief about £1.9bn in 2022–23, while gains held at death are not taxed and HMRC does not estimate their cost. The OBR expects behaviour to remove about 60% of the static yield of the 2024 capital gains tax rate rises. (Tax options)
- Behaviour can wipe out simple yields: on HMRC’s figures, +10 points on the higher rate of capital gains tax loses about £2.06bn, while +1 point on inheritance tax raises about £0.24bn. (Tax options)
Review record
Assessment status: Provisional single-reviewer assessment; not an approved business case.
Reviewer: Original assessment author (name not supplied). Reviewed: 6 October 2026.
Scored in the working review of 6 October 2026 on the shared ten-criterion scale (one reviewer); not independently calibrated.
First 90 days (review): Produce a signed scope and current-delivery baseline; Separate annual wealth tax, minimum effective tax and one-off levy; define base, residence, valuation and anti-avoidance. Obtain incremental costs and an accountable decision before expansion.
Decision route: Separate three design appraisals
An editorial screening framework by one reviewer, not a formal appraisal or business case. Proposed owners have not agreed to act.