Autumn Budget 2026 · delivery tracker · last checked 28 October 2026

Promised on Budget day. Delivered? We are tracking 7 big commitments.

A Budget is a set of promises. For each big commitment we show the goal, how far it has got, and the official figures that will show whether it worked. A step counts as done only when there is published proof.

Evidence last reviewed 28 October 2026

Progress so far

11 of 27 steps done

Done
11
Still to come
15
Date passed, no proof yet
1

Your First Home

equity loans for first-time buyers of new-build homes

70,000

first-time buyers to help

Next: Local price caps published for every council area (“shortly” (no date given))

The goal: Support around 70,000 first-time buyers from April 2027 with a 20% government equity loan, interest-free for five years, alongside a deposit of at least 2.5%; and support the delivery of new homes.

HousingMeasure 37: Your First Home

Every step, the money and how we will know it worked

Where: England; new-build homes within local price caps; household income up to £110,000 (£140,000 in London)

Money: £4.7bn of equity loans over five years (£0.7bn in 2027–28, then £1bn a year) — a financial transaction that adds to debt but not to borrowing; part is funded by reprioritising other financial-transaction budgets. On the borrowing scorecard it costs £15m in 2026–27 and then brings in a small net income from developer fees.

  1. Scheme announced · 26 September 2026 · Done · proof
  2. Terms, eligibility and five-year funding published · 28 October 2026 · Done · proof
  3. Equity-loan funding scored in the Budget · 28 October 2026 · Done · proof
  4. Local price caps published for every council area · “shortly” (no date given) · Still to comeOnly example caps were published on Budget day.
  5. Customer pre-registration opens · “before the end of the year” · Still to come
  6. Full guidance, terms and conditions, and repayment rules published · before applications open · Still to come
  7. Applications open · February 2027 (MHCLG); “from April 2027” (Treasury) · Still to comeThe two Budget-day publications give different start points; track which holds.
  8. Around 70,000 first-time buyers supported · no end date stated; funding runs five years from 2027–28 · Still to comeThe objective sets a number but not a date. £4.7bn ÷ 70,000 implies an average loan of about £67,000 (UK Facts calculation).

How we will know it worked

  • Completions using Your First Home, by area and price — No official statistic announced yet. Help to Buy had quarterly official statistics; whether this scheme will is not yet stated.
  • Additional homes built because of the scheme (additionality) — No estimate for this scheme. The Help to Buy evaluation is the closest precedent for how additionality was measured.
  • New-build first-time buyer prices and deposits — Market data exist but no official series isolates scheme buyers yet.

What to watch

  • Borrowers with a 2.5% deposit have little equity: a fall in prices or a rise in rates hits them first. This is the risk the housing SWOT already records (housing-t-credit).
  • Whether the scheme adds homes or mainly raises new-build prices and developers’ sales; the Help to Buy evaluation is the comparison to use.
  • The equity loan’s interest starts in year six (1.5%, then 3%); arrears data will matter from 2032–33.

Linked evidence points: housing-t-credit

Goal source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Table 6.1, measure 37 · last checked 2026-10-28 · next check 2026-12-31

Social and Affordable Homes Programme top-up

10,000

social and affordable homes

Next: First spending (2027–28)

The goal: Fund delivery of around 10,000 social and affordable homes.

HousingMeasure 35: Social and Affordable Homes Programme

Every step, the money and how we will know it worked

Where: England

Money: £250m in 2027–28 and £500m a year from 2028–29 to 2030–31 of capital spending.

  1. Funding confirmed in the Budget · 28 October 2026 · Done · proof
  2. First spending · 2027–28 · Still to come
  3. Around 10,000 additional homes delivered · funding ends 2030–31; no completion date stated · Still to come

How we will know it worked

What to watch

  • The homes must reach households in temporary accommodation to address the housing SWOT point on it (housing-w2); a completions count alone will not show that.

Linked evidence points: housing-w2 · housing-o1 · A02

Goal source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Table 6.1, measure 35 · last checked 2026-10-28 · next check 2027-06-30

Help with energy bills

£100 payment and VAT cut on electricity

£100

for homes in council tax bands A–D in England

Next: VAT cut applies (1 October 2026 to 1 July 2027)

The goal: A £100 Household Energy Payment paid directly into bank accounts from January 2027 for households in England in council tax bands A–D, and VAT on domestic electricity cut from 5% to 0% from 1 October 2026 to 1 July 2027.

Find your council tax band →

EnergyMeasure 1: Household Energy PaymentMeasure 2: Support for Energy Bills

Every step, the money and how we will know it worked

Where: Payment: households in England in council tax bands A–D, up to 20 million of them; the devolved governments receive a Barnett share and decide its use. VAT cut: domestic electricity across the UK.

Money: £2.6bn for the payment in 2026–27; £0.8bn (2026–27) and £0.3bn (2027–28) for the VAT cut.

  1. Both measures confirmed and costed · 28 October 2026 · Done · proof
  2. VAT cut applies · 1 October 2026 to 1 July 2027 · Date passed, no proof yet
  3. £100 rebates paid · from January 2027 · Still to come
  4. VAT returns to 5% · 1 July 2027 · Still to come

How we will know it worked

  • Fuel poverty in England — Annual, with a long lag; 2027 effects appear in later releases.
  • Payments made — No official count announced yet.

What to watch

  • Both are temporary: the energy SWOT point on bills well above pre-2021 levels (energy-w1) will not be resolved when the support ends.
  • A council tax band is a rough proxy for need, so some low-income households in higher bands miss out.
  • How the payment reaches bank accounts has not been published.

Linked evidence points: energy-w1 · energy-w2

Goal source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026 (the Budget document), Chapter 1, Breathing space for Britain · last checked 2026-10-28 · next check 2027-02-28

£2 single bus fare cap outside London

£2

single bus fare for a year

Next: Cap starts (1 January 2027)

The goal: Cap single bus fares at £2 for one year from 1 January 2027.

Growth & productivityMeasure 4: Bus Fares

Every step, the money and how we will know it worked

Where: England outside London

Money: Net cost £50m in 2026–27 and £180m in 2027–28, funded by reprioritising DESNZ budgets.

  1. Cap confirmed · 28 October 2026 · Done · proof
  2. Cap starts · 1 January 2027 · Still to come
  3. Cap ends (unless extended) · one year · Still to come

How we will know it worked

What to watch

  • A one-year cap may raise journeys only while it lasts; the growth SWOT point on bus use below 2019 levels (grow-w-bus) needs the 2027–28 and 2028–29 figures to judge.

Linked evidence points: grow-w-bus · A67

Goal source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Table 6.1, measure 4 · last checked 2026-10-28 · next check 2027-03-31

HMRC measures to close the tax gap

£3.2bn

a year from unpaid tax by 2031–32

Next: Online marketplace liability extended (1 October 2027)

The goal: Raise revenue by closing the tax gap through HMRC compliance measures, rising to about £3.2bn a year by 2031–32, and extend online marketplace liability from October 2027.

Public financesMeasure 45: HMRCMeasure 46: Online Marketplace Liability

Every step, the money and how we will know it worked

Where: UK

Money: Yield of £10m in 2026–27 rising to £3,160m in 2031–32 (measure 45); marketplace liability £165m–£320m a year.

  1. Package costed and certified · 28 October 2026 · Done · proof
  2. Online marketplace liability extended · 1 October 2027 · Still to come
  3. Yield above £1.9bn a year · 2029–30 · Still to come

How we will know it worked

What to watch

  • Most of the yield arrives from 2029–30, the year the fiscal rule is tested. The follow-the-money SWOT records that HMRC could not show the NAO the marginal return on more compliance staff (ftm-t2).

Linked evidence points: ftm-w1 · ftm-t2 · A19

Goal source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Table 6.1, measure 45 · last checked 2026-10-28 · next check 2027-06-30

Defence Investment Plan

savings and capital reallocation

£2.1bn

capital moved to defence plans in 2027–28

Next: Next NAO view on equipment-plan affordability (not scheduled)

The goal: Fully fund the Defence Investment Plan by reallocating capital spending, alongside further savings committed on 30 June 2026.

DefenceMeasure 40: Defence Investment Plan (DIP)Measure 41: Defence Investment Plan

Every step, the money and how we will know it worked

Where: UK

Money: As scored in Table 6.1: measure 40 at −£1,755m in 2026–27 and −£0.9bn to −£1.1bn a year after; measure 41 at +£145m in 2026–27 and +£1.1bn to +£2.1bn a year after. The table does not break either down by programme.

  1. Savings committed · 30 June 2026 · Done · proof
  2. Reallocation scored in the Budget · 28 October 2026 · Done · proof
  3. Next NAO view on equipment-plan affordability · not scheduled · Still to come

How we will know it worked

What to watch

  • The defence SWOT threat on cost growth outrunning plans (def-t1) is the test: reallocated capital has to cover programmes already over budget.

Linked evidence points: def-t1 · A26

Goal source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Table 6.1, measure 41 · last checked 2026-10-28 · next check 2027-06-30

Licensing regime for supported housing

2027–28

licensing of supported housing begins

Next: Licensing starts (2027–28)

The goal: Introduce a licensing regime to enforce national standards for supported housing from 2027–28.

HousingMeasure 87: Supported Housing

Every step, the money and how we will know it worked

Where: England

Money: £55m in 2027–28, £70m in 2028–29, then £30m a year.

  1. Government response sets out licensing and standards · June 2026 · Done · proof
  2. Funding confirmed · 28 October 2026 · Done · proof
  3. Licensing starts · 2027–28 · Still to come

How we will know it worked

  • Schemes licensed; enforcement actions — No official statistic announced yet.

What to watch

  • The housing SWOT point on weak oversight (housing-w-supported-oversight) is resolved only if licensing is enforced, which needs reporting that does not yet exist.

Linked evidence points: housing-w-supported-oversight

Goal source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Table 6.1, measure 87 · last checked 2026-10-28 · next check 2027-06-30

Sources and methods (4)

Method notes

  • Commitments tracked are the Budget 2026 measures that bear on an existing SWOT point or national action, plus Your First Home. Each goal is the government’s own wording, with its source.
  • A step is marked done only with a dated publication showing it happened. Dates are those the government gave; where two publications disagree, both are shown.
  • The figures that will show the outcome are named in advance, so the result can be judged against the goal rather than later reframing. Where no official figure exists yet, the tracker says so.
  • SWOT points and actions are never removed because of an announcement. They are revised through the normal review when outturn data change.