Autumn Budget 2026 · 28 October 2026 · United Kingdom

Budget 2026: £7.6bn of help with bills this winter, followed by tax rises from 2027

The Chancellor eased energy bills, fuel and bus fares now, and raised taxes on businesses, savings and rental income from 2027 — with no change to tax on wages. The Treasury’s analysis finds lower-income households gain most. The catch: the Government is left £14.5bn of room under its own borrowing rule, about half what Chancellors usually keep.

Evidence last reviewed 28 October 2026

Budget 2026 in two minutes

So what does it mean for you?

  • You get

    £100

    paid from January 2027 to homes in England in council tax bands A–D, plus no VAT on household electricity until July 2027 and fuel 6p a litre cheaper than planned.

    Find your council tax band →

  • You pay

    +2p

    in every £ of tax on savings interest and rental income from April 2027. No change to income tax or National Insurance on wages.

  • Who pays

    £7.6bn

    from tax rises in 2029–30: about £6 in every £10 from businesses, banks and a crackdown on unpaid tax; £2.0bn from savers, landlords and investors.

  • The country

    £14.5bn

    left as a safety margin against the Government’s own borrowing rule — about half the usual. The OBR puts the chance of meeting the rule at 56%.

Who wins and who loses

The lowest-income tenth of households gain about £75 a year; the richest tenth lose about £105.

On the Treasury’s own analysis for 2027–28, the average household is £28 a year better off, and all but the top 20% gain on average. The figures include the value of public services, not just cash, and leave out business taxes, which people pay indirectly.

The tax take is forecast to reach 42.9% of national income, the highest since 1949–50. Where the tax comes from →

Average gain or loss per household, £ a year, 2027–28

+£75Lowest+£702+£703+£534+£435+£396+£267+£178−£69−£105Highest+£28All← lower incomes · households grouped into tenths by income · higher incomes →
Key: what income puts a household in each tenth?
Median gross household income in each tenth, £ a year, 2028–29, by household type. Larger households need more income to be in the same tenth.
Tenth1 adult1 adult and 1 child2 adults2 adults and 1 child2 adults and 2 children
Lowest£12,100£16,800£18,400£23,700£27,200
2£18,200£23,800£27,800£36,000£42,000
3£22,200£29,000£33,500£43,400£52,000
4£26,300£35,000£39,000£50,600£60,600
5£30,400£40,000£45,300£60,000£71,900
6£35,400£45,800£53,300£68,900£83,200
7£41,900£58,800£62,400£81,000£97,800
8£50,100£67,000£74,200£96,400£116,700
9£63,500£95,000£93,100£121,600£151,700
Highest£102,400£157,400£149,200£193,100£240,000

Source: HM Treasury, Impact on households, Figure 1.B (values read from the chart). Excludes the £100 payment, which falls in 2026–27.

When it happens

The help comes first and is mostly temporary; the tax rises start in April 2027 and keep going.

  1. Oct 2026 · Help

    VAT on household electricity cut from 5% to 0%

  2. Jan 2027 · Help

    £100 payment to council tax bands A–D in England · £2 bus fare cap · bank surcharge doubles to 6%

  3. Apr 2027 · Tax

    Tax on savings interest and rental income up 2p in the £ · Your First Home due to open (MHCLG says February, the Treasury April)

  4. Jul 2027 · Help

    Electricity VAT and fuel duty help ends

  5. Apr 2028 · Tax

    New tax rules for company distributions · high-value council tax surcharge rules (deferrals and exemptions) apply

  6. 2029–30 · Rules

    The year the fiscal rules are tested — the tax-gap crackdown is expected to raise £2.0bn that year

Find your council tax band

The £100 Household Energy Payment goes to homes in England in council tax bands A–D. Check where yours sits.

1 · Where is the home?
2 · What band is it in?

It is printed on your council tax bill.

Bands A–D: in line for the £100

Don’t know your band?

  • Look at your council tax bill or your council’s website.

  • England and Wales. We send the postcode to postcodes.io to find its neighbourhood; UK Facts does not save it.

  • For your home’s exact band:Check your band on GOV.UKThe official lookup by postcode or address opens in a new tab, so this page stays open. UK Facts does not see what you type there.
  • Not today’s price: bands have not been revalued since 1 April 1991, and the official band can differ from a value you have. Your bill is the answer that counts.

£100 Household Energy Payment

Pick a band

Is your home in line for the £100?

The Household Energy Payment is £100 for households in England in council tax bands A–D, from January 2027.

What each band means in England (value on 1 April 1991)
BandValue on 1 April 1991
A£100up to £40,000
B£100£40,001 to £52,000
C£100£52,001 to £68,000
D£100£68,001 to £88,000
E£88,001 to £120,000
F£120,001 to £160,000
G£160,001 to £320,000
Hmore than £320,000

Sources: HM Treasury, Budget 2026 (the Budget document), Chapter 1, Breathing space for Britain (who gets the payment) · Valuation Office, How domestic properties are assessed for Council Tax bands (band values) · Valuation Office, Council Tax: stock of properties, 2026 (table CTSOP1.1) (homes by band in each neighbourhood). UK Facts does not store anything you enter.

What it means for people like you

Nobody’s pay packet changes: none of the 98 decisions alters income tax or National Insurance on wages. What differs is whether you get help with bills, and whether you have savings, rental income or a home to buy.

John

Earns £35,000, rents a band B flat in England, drives to work, little in savings

  • Pay packet: no change — no Budget 2026 decision changes income tax or National Insurance on wages
  • £100 Household Energy Payment into his bank account from January 2027+£100
  • Electricity VAT cut to July 2027: £4.76 off every £100 of electricity
  • Fuel 6p a litre cheaper than planned to July 2027: about £3 a 50-litre tank
  • Tax rises from April 2027: none apply to him

Better off this winter; the help is temporary and mostly ends during 2027.

Assumptions: Council tax band B; savings interest within his £1,000 Personal Savings Allowance; no rental income.

Barry

Also earns £35,000 and lives in band B — but has £40,000 saved and lets out an inherited flat

  • Pay packet: no change
  • Gets the same £100, VAT and fuel help as John in 2026–27+£100
  • Savings interest taxed at 22% not 20% on the £600 above his allowance−£12
  • Rental profit taxed at 22% not 20%−£120

Same pay as John, same help this winter — then about £132 a year more tax from April 2027.

Assumptions: Savings earn 4% (£1,600 interest), £1,000 of it tax-free; £6,000 rental profit a year; stays a basic-rate taxpayer.

Priya and Tom

First-time buyers looking at a £300,000 new-build home in England

  • Deposit with Your First Home (2.5%) instead of £15,000 with a 95% mortgage+£7,500
  • Monthly cost in years 1–5: £1,248 instead of £1,530+£282
  • From year 7, equity-loan interest takes it to £1,398 a month
  • They owe the government 20% of the home’s value when they sell — more if prices rise

Easier to get on the ladder now; less equity and more exposure if prices fall or rates rise.

Assumptions: MHCLG’s own worked example: 30-year repayment mortgage at 5%, no early repayment of the equity loan.

Illustrative households, not averages. Tax-free savings interest uses the Personal Savings Allowance; the home-buying example is MHCLG’s own. Amounts per year unless stated; the monthly saving for Priya and Tom applies in years 1–5.

Which households gain and which lose?

Lower-income households gain most; only the top fifth lose on average

Average effect of Budget 2026 decisions on household income by income tenth, £ a year, 2027–28, including the cash value of public services.

HM Treasury modelling
+£75Lowest+£702+£703+£534+£435+£396+£267+£178−£69−£105Highest+£28All← lower incomes · households grouped into tenths by income · higher incomes →
Key: what income puts a household in each tenth?
Median gross household income in each tenth, £ a year, 2028–29, by household type. Larger households need more income to be in the same tenth.
Tenth1 adult1 adult and 1 child2 adults2 adults and 1 child2 adults and 2 children
Lowest£12,100£16,800£18,400£23,700£27,200
2£18,200£23,800£27,800£36,000£42,000
3£22,200£29,000£33,500£43,400£52,000
4£26,300£35,000£39,000£50,600£60,600
5£30,400£40,000£45,300£60,000£71,900
6£35,400£45,800£53,300£68,900£83,200
7£41,900£58,800£62,400£81,000£97,800
8£50,100£67,000£74,200£96,400£116,700
9£63,500£95,000£93,100£121,600£151,700
Highest£102,400£157,400£149,200£193,100£240,000
Averages hide a wide spread: a household with large savings in the fifth tenth can lose, while a similar one without savings gains. The case studies above show how. Business taxes are left out, though some will reach households through prices, wages or pensions.

United Kingdom · 2027–28 · HM Treasury modelling; averages within each tenth.

Show the workings — Lower-income households gain most; only the top fifth lose on average
Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
£ per household per year
Period:
2027–28
Status:
HM Treasury modelling; averages within each tenth.
Calculation:
Bar heights read from the vector chart against its axis labels (scripts/budgets/extract-hmt-distribution.py). Typical incomes for each tenth: Table 2.C (median gross income, 2028-29).
Not included / breaks:
Budget 2026 decisions with a direct effect on household income (tax, welfare, public services); excludes business taxes, regulation and borrowing. Average across households in each equivalised net income decile. The £100 council tax payment falls in 2026–27 and is not in this year’s chart.

Source: HM Treasury, Impact on households: distributional analysis to accompany Budget 2026, Figures 1.A and 1.B (read from the vector chart) (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table
Income tenthTax £Welfare £Public services £Overall £Overall % of income
Bottom 10%20451750.57
Decile 2221038700.28
Decile 3191041700.24
Decile 419825530.15
Decile 518620430.11
Decile 617418390.08
Decile 79215260.05
Decile 80115170.03
Decile 9-19112-6-0.01
Top 10%-120015-105-0.08
All households-2525280.06

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

Where the money goes

What the Budget’s new spending and tax cuts cost, by the Treasury’s own headings. Pick a year.

By Treasury heading, 2029–30

  • Pre-announced growth measures£1.1bn
  • Investing in our national security£1.0bn
  • Housing£625m
  • Other measures£615m
  • Backing British business£515m
  • Breathing space for families£330m
  • Breathing space for businesses£205m
  • Delivering Fiscal Devolution£200m

Biggest single costs, 2029–30

  • Defence Investment Plan (DIP)£905m
  • Social and Affordable Homes Programme£500m
  • Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)£490m
  • UK-India£360m
  • Investment for Growth£330m
  • Founders' Relief£260m
  • Mileage Rates£225m
  • British Business Bank£170m

Source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026 Table 6.1. Costs only; the money raised is in the next section.

Where the tax rises come from

Most of the extra tax falls on companies and on tax that is owed but not paid. Households pay through tax on savings interest above their allowance, rental income and company payouts.

Where will the tax rises come from?

£7.6bn of tax rises in 2029–30, mostly from businesses and a crackdown on unpaid tax

Tax measures that raise money, grouped by who bears them, £ million per year. Switch years with the buttons.

Treasury costings, grouped by UK Facts

£7.6bn raised by tax rises in 2029–30

  • £2.3bn (31%) — Businesses and banks
  • £2.3bn (31%) — Tax dodging and non-compliance
  • £2.0bn (27%) — Savers, landlords and investors
  • £690m (9%) — Foreign state investors
  • £200m (3%) — Other

The ten biggest tax rises, 2029–30

  • HMRCTax dodging and non-compliance£2.0bn
  • Writing-down AllowancesBusinesses and banks£1.1bn
  • DistributionsSavers, landlords and investors£800m
  • Modernising Taxation of Foreign Sovereign InvestmentsForeign state investors£690m
  • Savings IncomeSavers, landlords and investors£520m
  • Corporation Tax: foreign branch lossesBusinesses and banks£450m
  • Property IncomeSavers, landlords and investors£435m
  • Private Hire Vehicle OperatorsBusinesses and banks£395m
  • Online Marketplace LiabilityTax dodging and non-compliance£270m
  • Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR)Savers, landlords and investors£255m
Most of the money comes from companies (a lower capital allowance rate, the bank surcharge, VAT on large ride-hailing firms) and from HMRC collecting tax already owed. The rest comes from people with savings interest above their allowance, rental income or company payouts, and from foreign state investors.

United Kingdom · 2026–27 to 2031–32 · Treasury costings certified by the OBR.

Show the workings — £7.6bn of tax rises in 2029–30, mostly from businesses and a crackdown on unpaid tax
Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
£ million per year
Period:
2026–27 to 2031–32
Status:
Treasury costings certified by the OBR.
Calculation:
Each Table 6.1 measure labelled “Tax” with a positive value in the year, summed by payer group. Groups are UK Facts’ classification from each measure’s description (lib/budgets/explainer.ts).
Not included / breaks:
Gross tax rises only: tax cuts and spending savings are not netted off here. Businesses may pass costs on to customers, workers or shareholders; the costing does not say who ultimately bears them.

Source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Tables 6.1 and 6.2 (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table
MeasurePayer group2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
HMRCTax dodging and non-compliance10100115198024853160
Writing-down AllowancesBusinesses and banks1257651040107511001120
DistributionsSavers, landlords and investors0055800775785
Modernising Taxation of Foreign Sovereign InvestmentsForeign state investors0110495690675655
Savings IncomeSavers, landlords and investors15125555520555590
Corporation Tax: foreign branch lossesBusinesses and banks120480495450460470
Property IncomeSavers, landlords and investors035575435445455
Private Hire Vehicle OperatorsBusinesses and banks095385395410425
Online Marketplace LiabilityTax dodging and non-compliance0165320270250265
Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR)Savers, landlords and investors560180255280305
UK Export FinanceOther02002002002000
Machine Games DutyBusinesses and banks0135150145145145
Steel TariffBusinesses and banks85110120120120115
Temporary StaffingBusinesses and banks08595100100105
Cross-Border ServicesTax dodging and non-compliance07075757575
Corporation Tax: gas distribution timingBusinesses and banks-160404040400
Business Rates: vape shops and gaming centresBusinesses and banks01010101010

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

How this compares with the past

Thirty years of the tax take and borrowing, with the OBR’s new forecast. For the safety margin and the size of every Budget since 2010, see Budgets compared.

Is the tax take high by historical standards?

The tax take is forecast to reach 42.9% of national income by 2031–32, the highest since 1949–50

Public sector current receipts (taxes and other income) as a % of GDP, financial years. Solid: outturn; dashed: OBR October 2026 forecast including Budget measures.

Outturn and OBR forecast

1996–2032 · dashed lines show forecasts.

% of GDP30%35%40%45%axis does not start at 0200020102020203040.1%Forecast 42.9%
Thirty years ago the state took about a third of national income. The share rose after 2020 and, on the OBR’s forecast, keeps rising to 42.9%. A higher tax take is a choice about the size of the state, not by itself good or bad.

United Kingdom · 1996–97 to 2025–26 outturn; forecast to 2031–32 · Outturn to the latest year (provisional); forecast thereafter.

Show the workings — The tax take is forecast to reach 42.9% of national income by 2031–32, the highest since 1949–50
Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
% of GDP
Period:
1996–97 to 2025–26 outturn; forecast to 2031–32
Status:
Outturn to the latest year (provisional); forecast thereafter.
Calculation:
As published. The forecast joins the outturn only because both sources give the same value for 2025–26; the page checks this before drawing it.
Compare with:
1996–97: 32.3%
Not included / breaks:
Receipts include some non-tax income; the narrower “national accounts taxes” measure is lower but follows the same path.

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Public Finances Databank, Aggregates (per cent of GDP); forecast from OBR EFO October 2026 Table A.9.

View the data as a table
Financial year% of GDPStatus
1996–9732.3Outturn
1997–9834.4Outturn
1998–9935.0Outturn
1999–0035.7Outturn
2000–0136.4Outturn
2001–0235.6Outturn
2002–0334.5Outturn
2003–0435.3Outturn
2004–0535.9Outturn
2005–0636.5Outturn
2006–0736.9Outturn
2007–0837.2Outturn
2008–0935.7Outturn
2009–1035.8Outturn
2010–1136.8Outturn
2011–1237.1Outturn
2012–1336.7Outturn
2013–1436.6Outturn
2014–1536.5Outturn
2015–1636.7Outturn
2016–1737.3Outturn
2017–1836.9Outturn
2018–1937.2Outturn
2019–2036.6Outturn
2020–2137.6Outturn
2021–2238.4Outturn
2022–2339.3Outturn
2023–2439.3Outturn
2024–2538.9Outturn
2025–2640.1Outturn
2026–2741.4OBR forecast, October 2026
2027–2842.3OBR forecast, October 2026
2028–2942.4OBR forecast, October 2026
2029–3042.7OBR forecast, October 2026
2030–3142.8OBR forecast, October 2026
2031–3242.9OBR forecast, October 2026

Is borrowing coming down?

Borrowing is forecast to fall from 4.4% to 1.8% of national income

Public sector net borrowing as a % of GDP, financial years. Solid: outturn; dashed: OBR October 2026 forecast.

Outturn and OBR forecast

1996–2032 · dashed lines show forecasts.

% of GDP0%10%20%20002010202020304.4%Forecast 1.8%
Borrowing jumped in the pandemic and has stayed higher than before it. The OBR now expects it to fall each year, but outturns have mostly come in above earlier forecasts, and each autumn forecast since 2024 has started from a higher level.

United Kingdom · 1996–97 onwards · Outturn to the latest year (provisional); forecast thereafter.

Show the workings — Borrowing is forecast to fall from 4.4% to 1.8% of national income
Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
% of GDP
Period:
1996–97 onwards
Status:
Outturn to the latest year (provisional); forecast thereafter.
Calculation:
As published; joined only where both sources agree on the latest outturn year.
Compare with:
Before the financial crisis (2006–07): 2.7%
Not included / breaks:
Earlier forecasts also showed borrowing falling; see the comparison of successive forecasts on /budgets.

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Public Finances Databank, Aggregates (per cent of GDP); forecast from OBR EFO October 2026 Table A.9.

View the data as a table
Financial year% of GDPStatus
1996–973.1Outturn
1997–981.1Outturn
1998–990.0Outturn
1999–00-1.1Outturn
2000–01-1.5Outturn
2001–020.5Outturn
2002–032.9Outturn
2003–043.4Outturn
2004–053.8Outturn
2005–063.2Outturn
2006–072.7Outturn
2007–082.9Outturn
2008–097.3Outturn
2009–1010.2Outturn
2010–118.7Outturn
2011–127.3Outturn
2012–137.1Outturn
2013–145.7Outturn
2014–155.2Outturn
2015–164.1Outturn
2016–172.8Outturn
2017–182.9Outturn
2018–192.0Outturn
2019–202.6Outturn
2020–2114.7Outturn
2021–224.8Outturn
2022–234.7Outturn
2023–244.8Outturn
2024–255.1Outturn
2025–264.4Outturn
2026–274.2OBR forecast, October 2026
2027–283.4OBR forecast, October 2026
2028–292.9OBR forecast, October 2026
2029–302.1OBR forecast, October 2026
2030–311.8OBR forecast, October 2026
2031–321.8OBR forecast, October 2026

The OBR’s verdict: less room than a year ago

The Office for Budget Responsibility checks the Government’s sums. Its forecast leaves £14.5bn of room under the main rule (down from £21.7bn), and a 56% chance of meeting it.

Why is there less room against the fiscal rule than a year ago?

Forecast changes cut the margin to £12.5bn; the Budget added £2.0bn back

Margin against the rule that the current budget be in surplus in 2029–30: the November 2025 forecast, the changes since, and the October 2026 forecast, £ billion.

OBR forecasts of the 2029–30 margin
  • November 2025 forecast£21.7bn
  • Underlying forecast changes March 2026£7.5bn
  • Effect of March 2026 policy−£5.7bn
  • Underlying forecast changes October 2026−£11.1bn
  • Pre-measures forecast£12.5bn
  • Effect of policy£2.0bn
  • October 2026 forecast£14.5bn
The margin is a forecast of a surplus four years ahead, so it moves with every forecast. Underlying changes since March — higher debt-interest costs, weaker receipts and higher spending — took £11.1bn off it. The Budget’s decisions restored £2.0bn, leaving £14.5bn, or 0.41% of GDP. The OBR puts the chance of meeting the rule at 56%.

United Kingdom · November 2025 to October 2026 forecasts · OBR forecasts.

Probability of meeting the rule: 56% (OBR).

Show the workings — Forecast changes cut the margin to £12.5bn; the Budget added £2.0bn back
Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
£ billion in 2029–30
Period:
November 2025 to October 2026 forecasts
Status:
OBR forecasts.
Calculation:
As published by the OBR. Rows marked “forecast” are levels; the others are changes between them.
Compare with:
November 2025 margin £21.7bn
Uncertainty:
Probability of meeting the rule: 56% (OBR).
Not included / breaks:
The OBR notes the margin assumes planned fuel-duty rises take effect; without them it would be £10.2bn.

Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2026 (charts and tables), Table 7.1 and Chart 7.6 (fiscal target margins) (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table
Step£ billion
November 2025 forecast21.7
Underlying forecast changes March 20267.5
Effect of March 2026 policy-5.7
Underlying forecast changes October 2026-11.1
Pre-measures forecast12.5
Effect of policy2.0
October 2026 forecast14.5

The second rule — net financial liabilities falling as a share of GDP — has a £24.4bn margin, little changed from November 2025 (£24.4bn). Planned fuel-duty rises are part of both margins; without them the current-budget margin would be £10.2bn.

What has changed the borrowing forecast since March?

Borrowing in 2029–30 is forecast £10.4bn higher than in March, led by weaker receipts and higher spending

Contributions to the change in public sector net borrowing between the March 2026 and October 2026 forecasts, 2029–30, £ billion. Positive = adds to borrowing.

2029–30 forecast, change since March
  • Capital spending+£5.1bn
  • Debt interest spending+£12.0bn
  • Other current spending+£12.9bn
  • Receipts−£16.9bn
  • Policy decisions−£2.6bn
  • Change in PSNB+£10.4bn
  • Change in current budget deficit+£9.0bn
Borrowing in 2029–30 is forecast £10.4bn higher than in March. Lower receipts add £16.9bn and higher day-to-day spending other than interest adds £12.9bn. Debt interest adds £12.0bn. Policy decisions reduce borrowing in that year. The year-by-year pattern differs: in 2026–27 policy adds to borrowing.

United Kingdom · 2029–30 (forecast) · OBR forecasts.

Show the workings — Borrowing in 2029–30 is forecast £10.4bn higher than in March, led by weaker receipts and higher spending
Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
£ billion
Period:
2029–30 (forecast)
Status:
OBR forecasts.
Calculation:
As published by the OBR. Receipts are shown as their effect on borrowing, so a fall in receipts is a positive bar.
Compare with:
March 2026 forecast = zero
Not included / breaks:
Debt interest, other current spending and receipts mix forecast changes with the indirect effects of policy; the policy row is the direct effect of decisions in this Budget and is not the same as Treasury Table 6.1.

Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2026 (charts and tables), Chart 1.7 (changes in borrowing since March) (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table
Component2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–31
Capital spending11.56.15.55.13.6
Debt interest spending15.416.012.012.012.1
Other current spending-1.34.213.612.911.2
Receipts-14.2-17.8-19.6-16.9-15.5
Policy6.37.02.1-2.6-3.5
Change in PSNB17.715.513.510.47.9
Change in current budget deficit6.713.011.19.08.6

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

Help now, revenue later

What do the Budget’s decisions do to borrowing, year by year?

Decisions cost £7.6bn this year and raise £5.2bn by 2029–30

Net effect of all Budget 2026 policy decisions on public sector net borrowing, £ billion per financial year. Positive = borrowing lower; negative = borrowing higher.

Treasury costings, certified by the OBR
  • 2026–27−£7.6bn
  • 2027–28−£2.5bn
  • 2028–29+£0.7bn
  • 2029–30+£5.2bn
  • 2030–31+£6.1bn
  • 2031–32+£7.3bn
The Budget front-loads support and back-loads revenue. Cost-of-living help (the £100 energy payment, VAT and fuel-duty cuts) costs money in 2026–27; higher tax rates on savings and property income, a lower capital allowance rate and HMRC compliance work raise money from 2028–29. The tax decisions alone raise £5.6bn in 2029–30. The later yields are where the uncertainty sits: they depend on behaviour, and on future governments not reversing them.

United Kingdom (some measures apply to England only) · 2026–27 to 2031–32 · HM Treasury costings, certified by the OBR as reasonable central estimates.

Show the workings — Decisions cost £7.6bn this year and raise £5.2bn by 2029–30
Geography:
United Kingdom (some measures apply to England only)
Measure:
£ billion per year
Period:
2026–27 to 2031–32
Status:
HM Treasury costings, certified by the OBR as reasonable central estimates.
Calculation:
Table 6.1 “Total policy decisions” row, £ million, shown in £ billion. Not summed across years.
Compare with:
Zero = no net effect on borrowing
Not included / breaks:
Excludes financial transactions (Table 6.2), which change debt but not borrowing, and measures the Treasury says have no net effect on borrowing. Direct effects only; the OBR adds indirect effects in its own scoring.

Source: HM Treasury, Budget 2026: Table 6.1 policy decisions and Table 6.2 financial transactions, Tables 6.1 and 6.2 (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table
Financial yearTax decisions £mSpending decisions £mTotal £m
2026–27−1,645−5,950−7,595
2027–28+695−3,170−2,475
2028–29+2,865−2,135+730
2029–30+5,550−355+5,190
2030–31+6,495−360+6,135
2031–32+6,970+380+7,350

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

The OBR’s full fiscal forecast (borrowing, debt, tax and interest)

What does the OBR now forecast for borrowing, debt and tax?

Tax rises to 38.6% of GDP and net debt stays above 95% of GDP to 2031–32

OBR fiscal aggregates, financial years. The first column is outturn; the rest are the October 2026 forecast, including Budget measures.

OBR October 2026 forecast
Tax rises to 38.6% of GDP and net debt stays above 95% of GDP to 2031–32
Measure2025–26 (outturn)2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
Borrowing (PSNB), £bn134.3133.2112.099.573.866.968.3
Borrowing, % of GDP4.44.23.42.92.11.81.8
Current budget deficit, £bn (negative = surplus)47.440.617.57.8-14.5-21.7-20.9
Net financial liabilities (PSNFL), % of GDP81.483.283.883.883.182.381.7
Net debt (PSND), % of GDP93.195.596.797.396.795.995.6
Net debt excluding the Bank of England, % of GDP88.992.393.894.794.394.294.0
National Accounts taxes, % of GDP36.037.237.938.138.438.538.6
Total managed expenditure, % of GDP44.545.645.745.444.844.644.6
Net debt interest, £bn87.5100.8106.7111.1120.3122.3133.0
On the OBR’s forecast, national accounts taxes rise from 36.0% of GDP in 2025–26 to 38.6% by 2031–32. Borrowing falls from £134.3bn to £68.3bn, and the current budget moves into surplus in 2029–30. Net debt peaks at 97.3% of GDP. Net debt interest passes £100bn in 2026–27.

United Kingdom · 2025–26 outturn; 2026–27 to 2031–32 forecast · Forecast except the outturn year.

Show the workings — Tax rises to 38.6% of GDP and net debt stays above 95% of GDP to 2031–32
Geography:
United Kingdom
Measure:
As labelled in each row
Period:
2025–26 outturn; 2026–27 to 2031–32 forecast
Status:
Forecast except the outturn year.
Calculation:
As published. Debt measures are end-March with GDP centred on end-March.
Compare with:
2025–26 outturn
Not included / breaks:
Two debt measures appear: the fiscal rules use public sector net financial liabilities (83.2% of GDP in 2026–27); the headline net debt measure is higher (95.5%). Budget-day reports quoting “debt of 83%” are using the first.

Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2026 (charts and tables), Table A.9 (fiscal aggregates) (released 28 October 2026).

View the data as a table
Measure2025–26 (outturn)2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
Borrowing (PSNB), £bn134.3133.2112.099.573.866.968.3
Borrowing, % of GDP4.44.23.42.92.11.81.8
Current budget deficit, £bn (negative = surplus)47.440.617.57.8-14.5-21.7-20.9
Net financial liabilities (PSNFL), % of GDP81.483.283.883.883.182.381.7
Net debt (PSND), % of GDP93.195.596.797.396.795.995.6
Net debt excluding the Bank of England, % of GDP88.992.393.894.794.394.294.0
National Accounts taxes, % of GDP36.037.237.938.138.438.538.6
Total managed expenditure, % of GDP44.545.645.745.444.844.644.6
Net debt interest, £bn87.5100.8106.7111.1120.3122.3133.0

Scroll the table sideways to see every column.

What it changes, topic by topic

Pick a topic to see its measures. A measure can count towards more than one topic, so these totals overlap.

Every measure, as the Treasury costs it

All 98 decisions in Budget Table 6.1, in the Treasury’s own order and themes. £ million per financial year: + saves or raises money, − costs money. “Tax” or “Spend” is the Treasury’s label for each measure’s largest effect. Full methods for each costing are in the Treasury’s policy costings document.

Breathing space for families and businesses · 19 measures

Breathing space for families

Breathing space for families: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
1. Household Energy Payment. £100 council tax rebate for bands A-D from January 2027Tracked: delivery and outcome →Energy · Inflation · Cost of livingSpend−2,62500000
2. Support for Energy Bills. Cut VAT on domestic electricity from 5% to 0% from 1 October 2026 to 1 July 2027Tracked: delivery and outcome →Energy · Inflation · Cost of livingTax−755−3050000
3. Fuel Duty. Extend the temporary 5p-per-litre duty cut and defer the planned Retail Prices Index (RPI) increase to 1 July 2027Inflation · Cost of livingTax−575−7800000
4. Bus Fares. Cap single bus fares at £2 in England outside London for one year from 1 January 2027, funded by reprioritising DESNZ budgetsTracked: delivery and outcome →Inflation · Cost of livingSpend−50−180+65+17000
5. Mileage Rates. Increase the tax-free and tax-deductible car and van rates to 55p for the first 10,000 business miles from 6 April 2026 and the higher mileage rate to 35p from 6 April 2027Tax−30−200−220−225−235−245
6. Parental Pay. Establish a Parental Allowance for fathers, partners and adopters in Great Britain from April 2029Jobs & pay · BenefitsSpend000−70−70−70
7. Carer’s Allowance. Introduce a taper on earnings above the Weekly Earning Limit within 2030-31Benefits · Social careSpend0000−40−80
8. Universal Credit. Extend the £2,500 surplus earnings threshold for one year from 1 April 2027BenefitsSpend0−1400000
9. Early Years. Fund increased access to books for children aged 0 to 5EducationSpend−5−5−5000
10. Tariff Suspension Packages. Suspend tariffs on 135 food products from 21 June 2026 until 31 December 2028; 101 food products and kerosene for heating oil from 26 November 2026 until 31 December 2028; and fertiliser from 26 November 2026 until 31 December 2027InflationTax−50−75−55000
11. Cash ISAs. Maintain the cash ISA limit at £20,000 from 6 April 2027Tax0−5−20−35−50−70

Breathing space for businesses

Breathing space for businesses: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
12. Business Rates. Increase business rates relief for pubs, social clubs and live music venues by 20ppts to 35% from 1 April 2027Growth & productivityTax+5−160−115−5−5−5
13. Business Rates. Increase valuation thresholds for Small Business Rate Relief for retail, hospitality and leisure (RHL) properties from £12,000 to £18,000 for 100% relief and from £15,000 to £21,000 for tapered relief from 1 April 2027Growth & productivityTax+5−315−3200−5−5
14. Business Rates. Introduce a transitional support package, including a two-year real terms bills freeze for RHL businesses and a one-year extension of the 2023 Supporting Small Business support, part funded by extending the Transitional Relief Supplement for two years from 1 April 2027Growth & productivityTax0−10−230000
15. Trading Allowance. Increase the Income Tax Trading Allowance to £3,000 from £1,000 from 6 April 2027Jobs & payTax00−225−165−175−180
16. Business Tariff Suspensions. Suspend tariffs on 72 products from 5 August 2026 and extend suspensions for 361 products in 2027-28Growth & productivityTax−65−215−155000
17. Climate Change Levy. Freeze electricity & liquefied petroleum gas main rates, and uprate gas and solid fuels main rates by RPI from 1 April 2028EnergyTax00−25−25−25−25
18. Red Diesel. Reduce duty rates by 3.7p-per-litre from 15 June 2026 to 1 July 2027Growth & productivityTax−60−300000
19. Alcohol Duty. Increase the generosity of Small Producer Relief from 1 February 2027Tax0−10−10−10−10−10
Good growth in every postcode · 13 measures

Delivering Fiscal Devolution

Delivering Fiscal Devolution: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
20. Good Growth Funds. Seed funding for Mayors and local leaders in England and £1.5bn finance for Mayoral Strategic Authorities with a mechanism for subsidised lending (resource impacts of subsidy)Growth & productivitySpend0−340−30−35−55−60
21. Business Rates Retention. Devolve a share of business rates income and growth to Mayoral Strategic Authorities from April 2027Growth & productivitySpend0−10−45−75−110−140
22. Youth Employment and Skills. Expand local apprenticeship services to all current mayorsJobs & pay · EducationSpend0−50−70000
23. Regional Growth. Fund priority investments and local growth & regeneration projects across the UKGrowth & productivitySpend−20−85−45−3000
24. Cambridge Development Corporation. Pilot a new government financing model for land, housing and infrastructure development from April 2027 (capital grant element)Growth & productivity · HousingSpend00−50−6000
25. Strategic Authorities. Increase funding to build capacity to deliver new powers and investment responsibilitiesGrowth & productivitySpend0−1800000

Backing British business

Backing British business: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
26. Founders' Relief. Introduce a new CGT relief for qualifying founders of high-growth, innovative companies from 6 April 2027Growth & productivityTax0−260−180−260−285−300
27. R&D Tax Reliefs. Remove the Claim Notification Form from 1 April 2027 and simplify the Additional Information Form from Autumn 2027TechnologySpend0−45−60−65−65−70
28. Enterprise Management Incentives 2 (EMI2). Increase the individual option limit to £120,000, extending the exercise period to 15 years and remove interaction with EMI option limit from 6 April 2027Growth & productivityTax0−25−35−45−145−140
29. Backing Innovation. Bring forward £1bn investment and increase financial capacity by £2bn for the British Business Bank to support additional investment in the UK (resource impacts of increased lending)Technology · Growth & productivitySpend0+50+5+10+25
30. National Wealth Fund. Invest additional capital to support growth, including £2bn for the new Energy Wealth Fund (resource impacts of increased lending)Growth & productivitySpend00+35+120+250+470
31. Artificial Intelligence. Strengthen the UK’s AI security, accelerate adoption across the economy, and support strategically important UK AI capabilitiesTechnologySpend−35−115−185−145−5−5
32. EV Charging. Reduce the cost of using local, lower-powered public chargers in Great BritainEnergySpend0−50−50000
Hope for the future · 12 measures

Housing

Housing: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
33. Rough Sleeping. Invest in a route off the streets across the Parliament, alongside longer-term accommodation and intensive supportHousingSpend−175−515−580−85−90−95
34. Rough Sleeping. Reprioritise existing MHCLG budgets to tackle rough sleepingHousingSpend+120+4050000
35. Social and Affordable Homes Programme. Fund delivery of around 10,000 social and affordable homesTracked: delivery and outcome →HousingSpend0−250−500−500−5000
36. Social Housing. Introduce a zero rate of VAT for land sold to registered social housing providers (relevant housing associations) from 1 April 2027HousingTax0−15−15−15−15−15
37. Your First Home. Introduce a new equity loan scheme to support around 70,000 first-time buyers from April 2027 (net income from developer fees)Tracked: delivery and outcome →Housing · Cost of livingSpend−15+50+95+95+95+95
38. First Time Buyer ISA. Introduce a new ISA for first-time buyers, replacing the Lifetime ISA for new savers from 6 April 2029Housing · Cost of livingSpend000+110+110+235
39. Lifetime ISA. Reduce the withdrawal charge from 25% to 20% for first-time buyers purchasing properties above the £450,000 price cap from 29 October 2026HousingSpend−15−20−20−25−25−25

Investing in our national security

Investing in our national security: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
40. Defence Investment Plan (DIP). Commitment to further savings made at announcement on 30 June 2026Tracked: delivery and outcome →DefenceSpend−1,755−1,090−1,010−905−940−970
41. Defence Investment Plan. Reallocate capital spending to fully fund the Defence Investment PlanTracked: delivery and outcome →DefenceSpend+145+2,135+1,420+1,100+1,135+1,180
42. Defence. Reinvest defence and security administration savings into frontline defence and national securityDefenceSpend0−25−70−9500
43. Ukraine. Emergency winter support for air defenceDefenceSpend−50000000
44. UK Export Finance. Increase capacity to support UK defence exports from June 2026 (increased income from additional activity)DefenceTax0+200+200+200+2000
Funding the Budget fairly and responsibly · 20 measures

Modernising the tax and welfare system

Modernising the tax and welfare system: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
45. HMRC. Measures to close the tax gapTracked: delivery and outcome →Public financesTax+10+100+115+1,980+2,485+3,160
46. Online Marketplace Liability. Extend to UK businesses with a minimum annual sales threshold per platform of £90,000 from 1 October 2027Tracked: delivery and outcome →Public financesTax0+165+320+270+250+265
47. DWP Fraud and Error. Expand use of data and targeted controls to prevent fraud from entering the benefits systemBenefits · Public financesSpend+195−125+60+75+155+240
48. Welfare Reform. Remove benefit entitlements from serious offenders hospitalised in Great Britain from 6 April 2027BenefitsSpend0+5+5+5+5+5
49. Distributions. Modernise the distributions framework from 6 April 2028Tax00+55+800+775+785
50. Advance Corporation Tax (ACT). Abolish Advance Corporation Tax from 1 April 2031Tax0000+5+15
51. Cross-Border Services. Restrict the reverse charge on supplies of services from overseas to VAT-registered businesses from 1 April 2027Tax0+70+75+75+75+75
52. Pension Tax Allowance. Remove the income tax liability for pensioners with total income up to the value of the new State Pension from 6 April 2027 until 5 April 2030Pensions · Cost of livingTax0−45−90−150+50−15
53. Pensions Tax. Remove the two-year rule for taxation of pension and lump sum death benefits from 28 October 2026PensionsTax−5−15−15−15−15−15
54. Modernising Taxation of Foreign Sovereign Investments. Introduce a new statutory regime for the direct taxation of foreign sovereigns from 1 January 2029Tax0+110+495+690+675+655

Making fair choices on revenue raising

Making fair choices on revenue raising: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
55. Bank Surcharge. Temporarily increase the Bank Corporation Tax Surcharge rate from 3% to 6%, to fund breathing space measures for households, for 15 months from 1 January 2027Tax+305+950+220000
56. Machine Games Duty. Increase the rate from 20% to 25% for higher stake machines from 1 April 2027 and move duty liability to the machine supplier from 1 April 2028Tax0+135+150+145+145+145
57. Business Rates. Remove reliefs for vape shops and Adult Gaming Centres from 1 April 2027Tax0+10+10+10+10+10
58. Writing-down Allowances. Reduce the main rate writing-down allowance to 12% from April 2027 and increase the main rate first-year allowance to 50% from 1 January 2027Growth & productivityTax+125+765+1,040+1,075+1,100+1,120
59. Private Hire Vehicle Operators. Deem larger operators with annual fare turnover over £50 million liable for VAT on the full value of their fares from 2 January 2028Tax0+95+385+395+410+425
60. Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR). Reduce the lifetime limit to £500,000 from 6 April 2027Inequality · Growth & productivityTax+5+60+180+255+280+305
61. Property Income. Increase tax rates on property income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027Inequality · HousingTax0+35+575+435+445+455
62. Savings Income. Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027InequalityTax+15+125+555+520+555+590

Transforming the Civil Service

Transforming the Civil Service: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
63. Future Civil Service. Reduce administration budgets by 20% by 2029-30 compared to 16% reduction in Spending Review 2025 plansGovernment deliverySpend0+185+405+595+615+635
64. Future Civil Service. Reinvest part of the administration budget savings in a new AI Fund to reduce administration burdens and improve outcomesGovernment deliverySpend0−25−25000
Other policy measures including pre-announced policies · 34 measures

Pre-announced breathing space measures and associated funding

Pre-announced breathing space measures and associated funding: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
65. Heavy Goods Vehicles. Reduce Vehicle Excise Duty to £1 for 12 months from 1 July 2026Tax−135−500000
66. Great British Summer Savings Scheme. Reduce VAT to 5% on family days out from 25 June 2026 to 1 September 2026InflationTax−31000000
67. Bus Travel. Fund free bus travel for children aged 5-15 in England from 1 August 2026 until 31 August 2026InflationSpend−14500000
68. Corporation Tax. Make the foreign permanent establishment exemption mandatory, preventing their losses from reducing UK corporation tax receipts for accounting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2027Tax+120+480+495+450+460+470
69. Electricity Generator Levy. Increase the rate from 45% to 55% until 31 March 2028EnergyTax+60+350000

Pre-announced growth measures

Pre-announced growth measures: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
70. Industrial Electricity. Fund the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme starting from 1 April 2027, including a backdated payment for eligible businessesEnergy · Growth & productivitySpend0−1,235−65−135−420−465
71. Carbon Price Support (CPS). Remove the CPS rates to reduce energy bills from 1 April 2028EnergyTax00−165−45−15−10
72. Spring 2026 Youth Employment and Skills Package. Expand Youth Guarantee and apprenticeship supportJobs & paySpend0−290−375000
73. Skills. Re-establish the Union Learning Fund in EnglandJobs & pay · EducationSpend0−20−20000
74. Investment for Growth. Support strategic technologies, local growth and key industriesGrowth & productivity · TechnologySpend−155−460−530−330−355−535
75. British Business Bank. Expand the Growth Guarantee Scheme to support £6.5 billion of additional SME lending across this ParliamentGrowth & productivitySpend−105−145−180−170−160−155
76. Leeds City Fund. Establish the Leeds City Fund with 100% retention of business rates growthGrowth & productivityTax00−25−25−25−30
77. UK-India. Bring into force the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement and Double Contributions Convention from 15 July 2026Growth & productivityTax−175−285−330−360−385−400
78. Steel Tariff. Change tariff rate and quotas on imported steel from 1 July 2026Growth & productivityTax+85+110+120+120+120+115
79. Stamp Taxes on Shares. Replace Stamp Duty and Stamp Duty Reserve Tax with the Securities Transfer Tax from late 2027Tax0−15−30−30−30−30
80. Business Rates. Introduce 100% relief for eligible Electric Vehicle Charging Points (EVCPs) and electric vehicle-only forecourts for ten years from 1 April 2026EnergyTax0−15−5−10−15−15

Priority Public Services Funding

Priority Public Services Funding: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
81. Tackling Misogyny. Invest in grassroots misogyny prevention programmesCrime & safetySpend−5−5−5000
82. Infected Blood Compensation Scheme. Implement the Inquiry's Additional Report recommendations from 24 July 2026NHSSpend−360−355−265−90−750
83. Student Loans. Cap interest rates for Plan 2 and Plan 3 student loans at 6% from 1 September 2026 to 31 August 2027Education · Cost of livingSpend−230−170−10−10−5−15
84. Waste Crime. Fund Landfill Tax costs for six priority illegal waste site clearances until 31 March 2029 and a three-year pilot to fund Local Authorities' Landfill Tax liabilities arising from illegal waste site clearances from 2027Crime & safetySpend0−5−5−500
85. Further Priorities. Fund key priorities, including pressures facing the NHS and delivery of the Violence against Women and Girls StrategyNHS · Crime & safetySpend−355−175−140−50−15

Other measures

Other measures: Budget 2026 measures, £ million
MeasureType2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
86. Company Car Tax. Set the Benefit-in-Kind rates (appropriate percentages) for electric vehicles, hybrids and internal combustion engine vehicles for 2030-31Tax0000+310+345
87. Supported Housing. Introduce a licensing regime to enforce national standards for supported housing from 2027-28Tracked: delivery and outcome →HousingSpend0−55−70−30−30−30
88. Donated Medicines. Introduce a zero rate of VAT for the donation of medicines under qualifying circumstances from 23 June 2026NHSTax−15−20−20−25−25−25
89. Temporary Staffing. Amend Group 7 of Schedule 9 to the VAT Act 1994 to restore the tax treatment of medical deputies to its previously intended positionTax0+85+95+100+100+105
90. Landfill Communities Fund. Increase the Landfill Tax credit cap from 1 April 2027Tax0−10−15−15−15−15
91. Higher Education. Introduce registration requirements for franchise providers with 300 or more students from 1 September 2028, to strengthen quality and oversight of franchised provisionEducationSpend+30+70+200+220+200+225
92. Local Authority Spending. Impact of adjustments to high needs budget on local authority spendingEducationSpend+105+1400000
93. High Value Council Tax Surcharge. Confirm eligibility for deferrals, discounts and exemptions from 1 April 2028HousingTax−5−5−45−45−50−50
94. Benefits in Kind (BiKs). Delay mandatory payrolling of company cars, vans, fuel and medical benefits from 6 April 2026 to 6 April 2027, with remaining BiKs implemented from 6 April 2028Tax−30−500−5−5
95. Low Value Imports. Remove the £135 customs duty relief and introduce new customs arrangements from October 2028Tax00+2150−10−15
96. Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Delay the inclusion of energy from waste in the ETSEnergyTax00−125−490−450−440
97. Corporation Tax. Spread the one-off impact of revenue recognition changes for qualifying gas distribution activities over five years for accounting periods ending on or after 31 December 2026Tax−160+40+40+40+400
98. International Investors. Relieve double taxation for UK investors in US Limited Liability Companies and similar entities from early 2028Tax00−5−10−5−5
Budget 2026 totals, £ million
Total tax decisions−1,645+695+2,865+5,550+6,495+6,970
Total spending decisions−5,950−3,170−2,135−355−360+380
Total policy decisions−7,595−2,475+730+5,190+6,135+7,350

Loans and investments: debt, not borrowing

Financial transactions — loans and equity stakes such as the Your First Home equity loans and National Wealth Fund capital — add to debt when made, but do not count as spending in borrowing because the state acquires an asset. The Treasury lists them separately (Table 6.2). Together they add £2.8bn to the cash the state must raise in 2029–30.

9 financial transactions, £ million cash impact
Transaction2026–272027–282028–292029–302030–312031–32
Good Growth Funds. £1.5bn finance for Mayoral Strategic Authorities with a mechanism for subsidised lending00−300−355−535−595
National Wealth Fund. Invest additional capital to support growth, including £2bn for the new Energy Wealth Fund00−1,000−2,240−3,060−3,900
British Business Bank. Bring forward investment and increase financial capacity to support additional investment in the UK−345−40−140−100−90−35
SovAI. Additional funding for Sovereign AI to invest in and support the UK's promising AI companies−25−45−45−4500
Your First Home. Introduce a new equity loan scheme to support around 70,000 first-time buyers from April 20270−700−1,000−1,000−1,000−1,000
Your First Home. Reprioritise financial transactions budgets to fund the new equity loan scheme+165+100+635+1,275+1,395+1,580
Investment for Growth. Support strategic technologies, local growth and key industries−25−380−435−465−4950
Cambridge Development Corporation. Pilot a new government financing model for land, housing and infrastructure development from April 20270−95−10000
DWP Fraud and Error. Expand use of data and targeted controls to prevent fraud from entering the benefits system from April 2027000+130+110+100
Total−230−1,160−2,290−2,795−3,675−3,850

What this page does not yet show

  • Who gains and loses. The Treasury’s distributional analysis is published as a PDF and is not yet read into this site; see Impact on households.
  • Measures from earlier events re-costed at this Budget (Treasury Table 6.4) and measures the Treasury says have no net effect on borrowing.
  • Outturn. ONS public sector finances record what actually happens; the next release is 20 November 2026, and the effect of individual measures is never separately identified in it.
  • Funding for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland that follows from England-only measures under the Barnett formula.
Sources and methods (4)

Method notes

  • Costings are read from the Treasury spreadsheet by scripts/budgets/ingest-fiscal-event.py, which fails if the measures do not sum to the published totals or if any measure number is missing.
  • Costings are never summed across years. Totals within a year are the Treasury’s own; topic totals add only the measures UK Facts classifies to that topic and overlap between topics.
  • Topic classification is UK Facts’ editorial judgement (lib/budgets/domain-map.ts), pinned to each measure’s Treasury label so a renumbered table fails the data tests. Every measure also affects the public finances; that page shows the totals.
  • The OBR certifies the Treasury’s costings as reasonable central estimates; its own scoring adds indirect effects on the economy, which is why the OBR’s policy row differs from Table 6.1.
  • Debt is reported two ways. The fiscal rules use public sector net financial liabilities; public sector net debt is the headline stock. Budget-day reports of debt around 83% of GDP use the first; net debt is about 95%.