Household costs outlook · UK; energy and pay measures cover Great Britain
Household costs: what is confirmed, and what is only forecast
The energy price cap is confirmed at £1,723 a year at typical use until 31 December 2026; the next level is not yet set. The costs behind food prices are mixed. The official forecast for 2027 has pay and prices growing 2.4% and 2.0%. Every figure is labelled as confirmed, observed or forecast.
Evidence last reviewed 4 October 2026
How to read this page
- Observed
- Measured and published. Statistics can be revised.
- Confirmed
- Set by the regulator for a stated period.
- Forecast
- A published forecast, conditional on the forecaster’s assumptions. Not a guarantee.
Sources last checked 4 October 2026. Each figure keeps its own period and publication date; they are not all from the same month.
At least one source is overdue or failed its latest check. Figures from it are the last ones verified and keep their original dates; see the source list below.
What happens to the cap next?
The cap for October to December 2026 is confirmed: £1,723 a year at Ofgem’s typical use in Great Britain. The level for January to March 2027 has not been set. Ofgem will announce it by 25 November 2026; until then its size is not known.
A source behind this section is overdue or failed its latest check. The figures shown are the last ones verified, with their original dates.
Now: October to December 2026
Confirmed£1,723 a year
A limit on unit rates and standing charges, shown as a year’s bill at typical use. Use more and you pay more.
Great Britain · Direct Debit · 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year · Ofgem, Annex 9, announced 26 August 2026
Change from July to September 2026
Confirmed+£60 a year
Not a like-for-like price change: there is no VAT on electricity from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, so the two periods are taxed differently. Before VAT the cap rose from £1,584 to £1,682 (+6.2%). Ofgem says costs cannot be compared directly.
Same payment method and typical use in both periods · +3.6% · about £5 a month if spread evenly over a year
Next: January to March 2027
Expected dateNot yet announced
UK Facts shows a cap level only once Ofgem has confirmed it.
Announcement due by 25 November 2026 · Ofgem’s published dates · Ofgem may publish earlier
Why it could move. Wholesale energy is the largest part of the cap, and Ofgem takes wholesale prices into account each quarter (Ofgem). It sets each level about five weeks before the period starts (26 August 2026 for October to December 2026). Where a bill goes shows the wholesale share. Until Ofgem announces a level, any figure for it is a forecast.
Independent forecasts. Analysts publish their own estimates of the next cap; Cornwall Insight published one on 30 September 2026. UK Facts does not have permission to republish its figures, so none appears here. That is a rights position, not a missing forecast.
Are the costs behind food prices building?
Mixed. Food in UK shops cost 1.3% more in August 2026 than a year earlier (ONS). Further back in the chain, UK farm costs were +6.4% and the prices farmers received −3.5% on a year earlier in July 2026 (Defra); world food commodity prices were +5.8% in September 2026 (FAO). These are measurements, not a forecast of shop prices.
A source behind this section is overdue or failed its latest check. The figures shown are the last ones verified, with their original dates.
Are the costs behind food prices building or easing?
Mixed: farm costs +6.4% and world food prices +5.8% on a year earlier, farm-gate prices −3.5%
Change on the same month a year earlier, %, for three separate measures: food prices in UK shops (ONS), prices paid and received by UK farmers (Defra), and international food commodity prices (FAO).
UK shops and UK farms; world commodity markets · January 2019 to September 2026; each line ends at its own latest month · Observed; Defra released 24 September 2026; FAO 2 October 2026; ONS 16 September 2026
Show the workings — Mixed: farm costs +6.4% and world food prices +5.8% on a year earlier, farm-gate prices −3.5%
- Geography:
- UK shops and UK farms; world commodity markets
- Measure:
- % change on a year earlier
- Period:
- January 2019 to September 2026; each line ends at its own latest month
- Status:
- Observed; Defra released 24 September 2026; FAO 2 October 2026; ONS 16 September 2026
- Calculation:
- ONS rate as published (D7G8). Defra and FAO lines are site calculations: each monthly index divided by its value twelve months earlier (Defra 2020 = 100; FAO 2014–2016 = 100). Archive vintage 2026-10-02-51f636ca92e95549, file sha256:2511ecdc383c…
- Compare with:
- Food in UK shops: 1.3% in August 2026
- Not included / breaks:
- The measures have different baskets, geographies and base periods and are not added together or weighted into one score. They are observations, not forecasts of shop prices. FAO prices are nominal and in international markets; FAO revises recent months.
Source: Defra, Agricultural Price Index (2020 = 100), CSV time series; with ONS series D7G8 and the FAO Food Price Index (nominal, monthly) (released 24 September 2026).
View the data as a table
| Month | UK shops (ONS) % | UK farm costs (Defra) % | UK farm-gate prices (Defra) % | World food commodities (FAO) % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 5.8 | |||
| Aug 2026 | 1.3 | 3.1 | ||
| Jul 2026 | 1.3 | 6.4 | -3.5 | 1.5 |
| Jun 2026 | 1.7 | 6.1 | -3.9 | 1.6 |
| May 2026 | 2.2 | 7.6 | -5.2 | 3.1 |
| Apr 2026 | 3.0 | 6.4 | -6.6 | 2.2 |
| Mar 2026 | 3.7 | 3.8 | -5.3 | 1.2 |
| Feb 2026 | 3.3 | 2.5 | -6.3 | -0.9 |
| Jan 2026 | 3.6 | 2.3 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
| Dec 2025 | 4.5 | 1.8 | -1.0 | -2.2 |
| Nov 2025 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | -2.0 |
| Oct 2025 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 4.8 | -0.4 |
| Sep 2025 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| Aug 2025 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Jul 2025 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 7.4 |
| Jun 2025 | 4.5 | -0.5 | -1.6 | 5.9 |
| May 2025 | 4.4 | -0.8 | 0.1 | 5.5 |
| Apr 2025 | 3.4 | -0.3 | 3.3 | 7.6 |
| Mar 2025 | 3.0 | -1.2 | 4.7 | 7.0 |
| Feb 2025 | 3.3 | -1.4 | 5.2 | 7.8 |
| Jan 2025 | 3.3 | -2.2 | 4.6 | 6.0 |
| Dec 2024 | 2.0 | -3.7 | 4.3 | 6.9 |
| Nov 2024 | 2.0 | -4.1 | 3.8 | 5.9 |
| Oct 2024 | 1.9 | -3.5 | 3.8 | 5.1 |
| Sep 2024 | 1.9 | -4.8 | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| Aug 2024 | 1.3 | -3.7 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| Jul 2024 | 1.5 | -3.1 | 4.9 | -2.8 |
| Jun 2024 | 1.5 | -4.0 | 7.5 | -1.6 |
| May 2024 | 1.7 | -5.4 | 5.4 | -3.2 |
| Apr 2024 | 2.9 | -7.1 | 2.2 | -7.2 |
| Mar 2024 | 4.0 | -9.2 | -1.1 | -7.1 |
| Feb 2024 | 5.0 | -10.5 | -3.5 | -10.2 |
| Jan 2024 | 6.9 | -11.5 | -3.7 | -10.5 |
| Dec 2023 | 8.0 | -10.7 | -4.7 | -10.5 |
| Nov 2023 | 9.2 | -11.1 | -4.9 | -11.3 |
| Oct 2023 | 10.1 | -11.4 | -5.1 | -11.7 |
| Sep 2023 | 12.1 | -12.4 | -5.2 | -11.4 |
| Aug 2023 | 13.6 | -12.7 | -0.2 | -12.2 |
| Jul 2023 | 14.8 | -13.0 | -0.7 | -12.1 |
| Jun 2023 | 17.3 | -9.8 | -1.9 | -21.0 |
| May 2023 | 18.3 | -7.7 | -1.0 | -21.6 |
| Apr 2023 | 19.0 | -5.9 | 2.2 | -19.1 |
| Mar 2023 | 19.1 | 5.9 | 7.9 | -20.1 |
| Feb 2023 | 18.0 | 12.7 | 16.8 | -7.8 |
| Jan 2023 | 16.7 | 14.7 | 17.9 | -3.2 |
| Dec 2022 | 16.8 | 19.5 | 16.4 | -0.4 |
| Nov 2022 | 16.4 | 21.0 | 18.8 | 0.4 |
| Oct 2022 | 16.2 | 24.9 | 23.2 | 2.6 |
| Sep 2022 | 14.5 | 31.5 | 23.6 | 6.4 |
| Aug 2022 | 13.1 | 31.6 | 19.1 | 8.4 |
| Jul 2022 | 12.6 | 33.6 | 20.6 | 13.8 |
| Jun 2022 | 9.8 | 32.6 | 21.2 | 24.2 |
| May 2022 | 8.6 | 33.0 | 21.0 | 23.6 |
| Apr 2022 | 6.7 | 33.8 | 20.6 | 30.1 |
| Mar 2022 | 5.9 | 25.1 | 16.8 | 34.5 |
| Feb 2022 | 5.1 | 20.1 | 11.8 | 21.6 |
| Jan 2022 | 4.3 | 21.1 | 10.6 | 19.6 |
| Dec 2021 | 4.2 | 18.7 | 14.9 | 23.2 |
| Nov 2021 | 2.5 | 18.9 | 14.0 | 28.3 |
| Oct 2021 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 8.2 | 31.6 |
| Sep 2021 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 31.9 |
| Aug 2021 | 0.3 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 33.8 |
| Jul 2021 | -0.6 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 32.6 |
| Jun 2021 | -0.6 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 34.7 |
| May 2021 | -1.3 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 40.8 |
| Apr 2021 | -0.4 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 32.1 |
| Mar 2021 | -1.4 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 25.1 |
| Feb 2021 | -0.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 17.0 |
| Jan 2021 | -0.7 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 10.7 |
| Dec 2020 | -1.4 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| Nov 2020 | -0.6 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 7.4 |
| Oct 2020 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 9.6 | 6.6 |
| Sep 2020 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 8.8 | 5.0 |
| Aug 2020 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| Jul 2020 | 0.8 | -1.0 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| Jun 2020 | 1.1 | -2.7 | 2.2 | -2.4 |
| May 2020 | 1.8 | -2.3 | 2.5 | -3.2 |
| Apr 2020 | 1.3 | -1.5 | 0.8 | -1.2 |
| Mar 2020 | 1.3 | -2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Feb 2020 | 1.2 | -2.6 | -0.2 | 6.2 |
| Jan 2020 | 1.4 | -2.6 | -1.4 | 10.1 |
| Dec 2019 | 1.7 | -3.4 | -4.9 | 9.6 |
| Nov 2019 | 2.1 | -3.4 | -6.6 | 6.9 |
| Oct 2019 | 1.3 | -3.2 | -8.1 | 1.9 |
| Sep 2019 | 1.8 | -1.7 | -9.8 | -0.9 |
| Aug 2019 | 1.8 | -0.5 | -7.0 | -2.1 |
| Jul 2019 | 1.4 | 0.7 | -2.6 | 0.1 |
| Jun 2019 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 0.0 | -1.4 |
| May 2019 | 1.0 | 4.2 | -1.9 | -4.4 |
| Apr 2019 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 0.8 | -5.0 |
| Mar 2019 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 0.3 | -5.9 |
| Feb 2019 | 1.1 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -4.1 |
| Jan 2019 | 0.9 | 6.7 | 2.1 | -3.7 |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column.
Inside the farm-cost figure (July 2026, on a year earlier): energy and lubricants +13.8%, fertilisers and soil improvers +13.1%, animal feed +3.8%. Inside the world index (September 2026): meat 0.0%, dairy −19.1%, cereal +17.2%, vegetable oil +18.3%, sugar +14.7%.
How “mixed” is decided. If farm costs, farm-gate prices and the world index are all more than 1% above their level a year earlier, pressure is described as building; all more than 1% below, easing; anything else, mixed. It is a description of three published indices. It is not a score, and no size or timing of any effect on shop prices is estimated.
Independent forecasts. IGD published food-inflation forecast ranges on 17 September 2026. UK Facts does not have permission to republish them, so none appears here.
Source: FAO Food Price Index. © FAO. FAO has not endorsed this use. Farm indices: Defra, Agricultural Price Index, Open Government Licence.
How costs differ between households
Across all UK households, costs rose 2.8% in the year to June 2026 on ONS’s Household Costs Indices. The figure below shows the groups ONS measures. These are observed differences, not forecasts.
A source behind this section is overdue or failed its latest check. The figures shown are the last ones verified, with their original dates.
Which households’ costs are rising fastest now?
In the year to June 2026, costs rose 3.0% for private renters and 2.5% for retired households
Household Costs Indices, all items, by the household groups ONS publishes. Choose a grouping and a measure; each grouping is a separate breakdown of all UK households.
Observed, in the year to June 2026. Highest: private renters, 3.0%. Lowest: outright owners, 2.6%. All households: 2.8%.
- Mortgagors and other owner-occupiers2.8%
- Outright owners2.6%
- Private renters3.0%
- Social and other renters2.7%
ONS groups mortgagors with other owner-occupiers who are not outright owners, and social renters with other renters. These are measured groups, not forecasts; ONS labels them official statistics in development.
UK · June 2026; change since January 2022 · Observed; official statistics in development (ONS); latest values provisional
Official statistics in development: ONS advises caution and may revise them. June 2026 is provisional. The 2026 weights are carried forward from 2025.
Show the workings — In the year to June 2026, costs rose 3.0% for private renters and 2.5% for retired households
- Geography:
- UK — private households, in the groups ONS publishes
- Measure:
- 12-month rate, %; and rise in costs since January 2022, % (site calculation from the index, 2015 = 100)
- Period:
- June 2026; change since January 2022
- Status:
- Observed; official statistics in development (ONS); latest values provisional
- Calculation:
- Rates and indices as published (Tables 1 and 2). The rise since January 2022 is each group’s June 2026 index divided by its January 2022 index. Archive vintage 2026-08-28-1b791787da554ad2, file sha256:683b984d4a77…
- Compare with:
- All households: 2.8% in the year to June 2026
- Uncertainty:
- Official statistics in development: ONS advises caution and may revise them. June 2026 is provisional. The 2026 weights are carried forward from 2025.
- Not included / breaks:
- Measured experience of published groups, not a forecast and not any one household’s budget. Income, tenure, retirement and children are separate breakdowns: ONS publishes no figure for a combination such as low-income private renters with children, and none is estimated here. No income amount is attached to a decile.
Source: ONS, Household Costs Indices for UK household groups, reference tables, Tables 1 and 2 (released 28 August 2026).
View the data as a table
| Grouping | Household group | 12-month rate, Jun 2026 (%) | Index, Jun 2026 (2015 = 100) | Rise since January 2022 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All households | All households | 2.8 | 147.5 | 28.4 |
| Income (tenths of households) | Lowest-income tenth | 2.7 | 148.2 | 29.2 |
| Income (tenths of households) | 2nd tenth | 2.7 | 146.8 | 28.2 |
| Income (tenths of households) | 3rd tenth | 2.7 | 146.5 | 27.9 |
| Income (tenths of households) | 4th tenth | 2.8 | 147.1 | 28.2 |
| Income (tenths of households) | 5th tenth | 2.8 | 147.0 | 27.8 |
| Income (tenths of households) | 6th tenth | 2.8 | 146.9 | 28.0 |
| Income (tenths of households) | 7th tenth | 2.8 | 147.0 | 27.6 |
| Income (tenths of households) | 8th tenth | 2.9 | 147.5 | 28.1 |
| Income (tenths of households) | 9th tenth | 2.8 | 147.4 | 28.0 |
| Income (tenths of households) | Highest-income tenth | 2.8 | 149.2 | 29.0 |
| Housing tenure | Mortgagors and other owner-occupiers | 2.8 | 150.8 | 31.5 |
| Housing tenure | Outright owners | 2.6 | 146.8 | 26.1 |
| Housing tenure | Private renters | 3.0 | 144.9 | 26.8 |
| Housing tenure | Social and other renters | 2.7 | 145.7 | 28.8 |
| Retired or not | Retired households | 2.5 | 147.2 | 27.1 |
| Retired or not | Non-retired households | 2.9 | 147.5 | 28.7 |
| With or without children | Households with children | 2.8 | 146.6 | 28.5 |
| With or without children | Households without children | 2.8 | 147.9 | 28.3 |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column.
A household like yours
Nearest measured group: all households. Their costs rose 2.8% in the year to June 2026 (observed; ONS Household Costs Indices, official statistics in development). This is every UK household counted equally — an average, not a median or “typical” household.
A “typical” household needs a measured income and spending pattern. It is not an average of the other contexts here.
No forecast is published for a household like this. That would need a forecast of its income after tax and of each of its bills on matching dates. Prices and average pay alone cannot show whether a particular household will be better or worse off.
Optional: work it through with your own assumptions
An illustration from the numbers you type, not a forecast. Enter every cost (zero where it does not apply) and how much you expect each to change between 2026-11-03 and 2027-11-03. Income is after tax and National Insurance. What you type stays in this page: it is not sent, stored or tracked.
Uses central forecasts where compatible inputs exist.
Fill in every field with a valid number to see an illustration. A blank is not treated as zero.
What is expected next for pay and prices?
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of 3 March 2026 has average earnings growing 2.4% and consumer prices 2.0% across 2027: pay rising faster than prices. That is a forecast for the UK, of gross pay before tax — not of any household’s income.
A source behind this section is overdue or failed its latest check. The figures shown are the last ones verified, with their original dates.
Prices now (CPI)
Observed3.1%
UK · 12 months to August 2026 · ONS, D7G7, released 16 September 2026
Pay now (average total pay)
Observed3.9%
Great Britain · three months to July 2026, on a year earlier · gross, before tax · ONS, KAC3, released 15 September 2026
Prices in 2027 (CPI)
Forecast2.0%
UK · calendar-year average · OBR, published 3 March 2026 · unchanged, to one decimal place, from the November 2025 forecast
Average earnings in 2027
Forecast2.4%
UK · calendar-year average · gross, before tax · OBR, published 3 March 2026 · was 2.3% in the November 2025 forecast
The measured and forecast figures are on different bases — a 12-month rate against a calendar-year average — so they are shown side by side and not subtracted from each other. The forecast is only updated at fiscal events, so it does not reflect what has happened since March 2026.
What does the official forecast expect for pay and prices?
The pay–inflation gap narrows: 1.1 points in 2026, 0.4 in 2030
Office for Budget Responsibility central forecast: average weekly earnings and CPI, calendar-year average growth, %. Dashed lines are forecasts.
UK · 2026 to 2030, forecast published 3 March 2026 · Forecast (modelled)
A central forecast, conditional on the OBR’s assumptions when it was published. The table used gives no range, so none is shown; later events are not reflected until the next forecast.
Show the workings — The pay–inflation gap narrows: 1.1 points in 2026, 0.4 in 2030
- Geography:
- UK
- Measure:
- % growth, calendar-year average
- Period:
- 2026 to 2030, forecast published 3 March 2026
- Status:
- Forecast (modelled)
- Calculation:
- As published in Table A.1, rounded to one decimal place for display. Archive vintage 2026-03-03-f749b3f0f68d92f3, file sha256:a86f3f62dc43…
- Compare with:
- Observed CPI inflation: 3.1% in the year to August 2026 (a 12-month rate, not a calendar-year average)
- Uncertainty:
- A central forecast, conditional on the OBR’s assumptions when it was published. The table used gives no range, so none is shown; later events are not reflected until the next forecast.
- Not included / breaks:
- Gross pay before tax and benefits, averaged over all employees: not household income and not a forecast for any household. A calendar-year average is not the same as growth over the next twelve months.
Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, Annex A, Table A.1, CPI (released 3 March 2026).
View the data as a table
| Year | Average earnings (%) | CPI (%) | Pay minus CPI (percentage points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2027 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 2028 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column.
What a fixed-rate deal ending now meets
Lenders’ quoted rate for a new two-year fix at 95% loan-to-value averaged 5.52% in August 2026 — lower than the 5.90% quoted in August 2024, when a two-year deal ending about now would have begun. This is an indicator of the UK market for one product, not an offer and not what any borrower will be charged.
Quoted two-year fix, 95% LTV
Observed5.52%
UK · monthly average, August 2026 · Bank of England, IUM2WTL · publication date not given in the data export
The same product a year earlier
Observed5.00%
UK · monthly average, August 2025 · Bank of England, IUM2WTL
The same product two years earlier
Observed5.90%
UK · monthly average, August 2024 · Bank of England, IUM2WTL
Bank Rate
Observed3.75%
UK · on 1 October 2026 · Bank of England, IUDBEDR · the official rate, not a mortgage rate
What this does and does not tell you. A household coming off a fix pays whatever its lender offers on the loan it has left: that depends on how much is still owed against the value of the home, the term, and the deal chosen. The 95% loan-to-value product is one of several the Bank of England reports; borrowers with more equity are quoted different rates. The quoted rate shows the direction of the market between two dates. It is not a payment, and it says nothing about rents, which depend on the tenancy and the local market.
Dates ahead
When the next confirmed figures are due. Release dates are the publishers’ own and can change.
1 October 2026
Takes effectEnergy price cap for October to December 2026 takes effect
£1,723 a year at Ofgem’s typical use, announced 26 August 2026. Ofgem
6 November 2026
Expected releaseFAO publishes the next Food Price Index
The date the publisher listed when it released the Sep 2026 figures. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
25 November 2026
Expected releaseOfgem announces the price cap for January to March 2027
Ofgem says the level will be announced by this date, and that it may publish earlier. Ofgem (no figures exist for this yet)
27 November 2026
Expected releaseONS publishes the next Household Costs Indices
The date the publisher listed when it released the Jun 2026 figures. Office for National Statistics
23 February 2027
Expected releaseOfgem announces the price cap for April to June 2027
Ofgem says the level will be announced by this date, and that it may publish earlier. Ofgem (no figures exist for this yet)
26 May 2027
Expected releaseOfgem announces the price cap for July to September 2027
Ofgem says the level will be announced by this date, and that it may publish earlier. Ofgem (no figures exist for this yet)
31 December 2027
Forecast period endsEnd of the period the OBR’s 2027 forecast for consumer prices refers to
2.0% calendar-year average growth, published 3 March 2026. Office for Budget Responsibility
31 December 2027
Forecast period endsEnd of the period the OBR’s 2027 forecast for average earnings refers to
2.4% calendar-year average growth, published 3 March 2026. Office for Budget Responsibility
How earlier forecasts turned out
The archive holds 22 forecast figures from 2 editions (November 2025 and March 2026). A new edition never replaces an old one. One forecast has a matching outcome so far — too few to say how reliable any forecaster is.
- Consumer prices (CPI), 2025: forecast 3.5%, outcome 3.4% (Office for National Statistics). Error +0.1 percentage points (forecast minus outcome), issued 35 days before the period ended.
Every forecast edition, by target year (12 targets)
| Measure and target | Editions (published → forecast) | Change between first and latest | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer prices (CPI), 2025Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| One edition | 3.4%; error +0.1 pointsOffice for National Statistics, published 16 September 2026; first matching outcome archived |
| Consumer prices (CPI), 2026Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| −0.2 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Consumer prices (CPI), 2027Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| −0.0 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Consumer prices (CPI), 2028Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| −0.1 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Consumer prices (CPI), 2029Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| −0.0 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Consumer prices (CPI), 2030Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| −0.0 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Average earnings (OBR definition), 2025Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| One edition | No matching outcome yet |
| Average earnings (OBR definition), 2026Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| +0.0 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Average earnings (OBR definition), 2027Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| +0.1 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Average earnings (OBR definition), 2028Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| −0.0 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Average earnings (OBR definition), 2029Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| +0.0 points | No matching outcome yet |
| Average earnings (OBR definition), 2030Office for Budget Responsibility · UK · Calendar-year average growth |
| +0.1 points | No matching outcome yet |
Scroll the table sideways to see every column.
A forecast is only compared with an outcome for the same measure, place, statistical basis and period. The OBR’s annual earnings forecast is not scored against ONS’s three-month pay growth, which is a different measure. Where a publisher gives only a range, the site records whether the outcome fell inside it and calculates no error from a midpoint. Outcomes are the first matching figures archived here and may include revisions.
What this page does not estimate
There is no single “essentials” forecast and no forecast of whether a representative household will be better or worse off. That would need forecasts of income after tax and benefits and of each bill, for the same households and dates, and no published source provides them together. Adding up the separate measures on this page would invent a basket nobody has measured.
There is no figure for an energy cap Ofgem has not announced, no forecast of shop food prices, no rent forecast and no personal mortgage payment. Where an independent forecaster has published a figure that the site may not reproduce, the page says so.
Where the figures come from
10 official data feeds are checked automatically. 3 further sources are publicly readable but are not shown, because the right to republish them has not been established.
| Source | Permission to use | Latest check | Latest publication held |
|---|---|---|---|
| Office for National Statisticsons-cpi · official | Open licence; connectedOpen Government Licence; ONS bot guidance followed (named user agent, low request rate). Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 16 September 2026 |
| Office for National Statisticsons-cpih · official | Open licence; connectedOpen Government Licence; ONS bot guidance followed (named user agent, low request rate). Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 16 September 2026 |
| Office for National Statisticsons-food · official | Open licence; connectedOpen Government Licence; ONS bot guidance followed (named user agent, low request rate). Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 16 September 2026 |
| Office for National Statisticsons-earnings · official | Open licence; connectedOpen Government Licence; ONS bot guidance followed (named user agent, low request rate). Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 15 September 2026 |
| Bank of Englandboe-rates · official | Open licence; connectedStatistical database content is reusable under the Open Government Licence, with the exclusions in the Bank’s legal page. Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | Date not supplied by the source |
| Office for Budget Responsibilityobr · official | Open licence; connectedOpen Government Licence (OBR copyright page). Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 3 March 2026 |
| Ofgemofgem · official | Open licence; connectedCrown copyright material under the Open Government Licence; third-party material on the site is excluded. Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 26 August 2026 |
| Office for National Statisticsons-hci · official | Open licence; connectedOpen Government Licence; ONS bot guidance followed. Official statistics in development. Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 28 August 2026 |
| Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairsdefra-api · official | Open licence; connectedGOV.UK content is under the Open Government Licence except where otherwise stated; no exception is stated for this dataset. Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 24 September 2026 |
| Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nationsfao-ffpi · official | Open licence; connectedFAO terms allow reuse of website data in non-commercial products with acknowledgement and no implied endorsement; its statistical database terms apply CC BY 4.0. Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Last check succeeded4 October 2026 | 2 October 2026 |
| Bank of Englandboe-mpr · official | Publicly readable; permission to republish not establishedThe Bank’s database licence does not cover every report; no reuse basis for the Monetary Policy Report data has been recorded. Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Not collected | None held |
| Cornwall Insightcornwall · independent | Publicly readable; permission to republish not establishedA forecast for January to March 2027 was published on 30 September 2026. The website terms prohibit scraping and text or data mining and reserve reuse; UK Facts has no permission to republish the figures. Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Not collected | None held |
| IGDigd · independent | Publicly readable; permission to republish not establishedAnnual food-inflation ranges were published on 17 September 2026. The copyright notice limits material to private, non-commercial use and forbids reproduction on another website without written consent. Terms, read 4 October 2026. | Not collected | None held |
How this connects
- What do households pay for energy?
The cap’s confirmed rates, how a bill changes with use, and where each pound of it goes.
The cap limits prices, not bills.
- Why do prices still feel high?
The inflation rate against the price level, which prices moved it, and how households’ experience differs.
- Are people better off?
What a week’s pay buys now compared with 2007, bill by bill.
Average pay is not household income.
- What does a home cost?
Prices against earnings, rents, and what a fixed-rate deal ending now meets.
Sources and methods (8)
- Ofgem, Energy price cap (default tariff) levels, Annex 9, consumption-adjusted levels (released 26 August 2026) — confirmed price cap levels at typical use, by cap period
- ONS, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23), series D7G8 (released 16 September 2026) — consumer price inflation and food price inflation, 12-month rates
- Defra, Agricultural Price Index (2020 = 100), CSV time series (released 24 September 2026) — prices paid and received by UK farmers. Defra, Agricultural Price Index
- FAO, FAO Food Price Index, nominal monthly indices, CSV, nominal indices from 1990 (released 2 October 2026) — international food commodity prices. Source: FAO Food Price Index. © FAO. FAO has not endorsed this use.
- ONS, Household Costs Indices for UK household groups, reference tables, Tables 1 and 2 (released 28 August 2026) — costs experienced by published household groups
- ONS, Labour market statistics time series (LMS), series KAC3 (released 15 September 2026) — average total pay growth, Great Britain
- OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, Annex A, Table A.1 (released 3 March 2026) — central forecasts for CPI and average earnings, by calendar year
- Bank of England, Statistical Interactive Database, series IUDBEDR and IUM2WTL — Bank Rate and the quoted two-year fixed mortgage rate at 95% loan-to-value
Method notes
- Observed means measured and published. Confirmed means set by the regulator for a stated period. Forecast means a published forecast attributed to its author. The three are never mixed in one figure.
- The energy cap is Ofgem’s annualised figure for Great Britain at its stated typical use, paying by Direct Debit. Two cap periods are compared only when payment method, geography and typical use match; a different tax basis is stated beside the comparison. The current period is October to December 2026.
- Food: ONS food inflation, Defra’s Agricultural Price Index (2020 = 100) and the FAO Food Price Index (2014–2016 = 100) are shown separately, each with its own latest month. Twelve-month changes in the Defra and FAO indices are calculated by this site from the published index levels. They are not combined or weighted.
- Household Costs Indices are ONS official statistics in development. Groups are shown exactly as published. Income, tenure, retirement and children are separate breakdowns and are never combined into a joint group.
- OBR forecasts are calendar-year averages; ONS inflation and pay figures are 12-month and three-month rates. They are shown side by side and not differenced.
- Every retrieval is stored unchanged with a SHA-256 hash, and each release is kept as its own vintage. A later release never overwrites an earlier one. A source that fails a check keeps its last verified figures, with a warning.
- Forecast accuracy is calculated only for the same measure, geography, statistical basis and period. Error is forecast minus outcome. A published range is checked for coverage only; no midpoint is calculated.
- The calculator uses only the numbers typed into it. Nothing typed is sent to the server, stored or tracked.
- Archive state 3fe4ef1c7d86. Source contracts are in the repository under docs/forecast/sources.